- Rethinking the Dollar: The Perils of Fiat Currency and the Need for Honest Money
The reliance on fiat currency, not backed by tangible assets like gold or silver, puts our economy at risk. This system lets the government produce more currency, leading to decreased purchasing power and inflation. Historically, the U.S. used gold and silver to limit money production and prevent inflation. Moving away from this system in the past century has given governments unchecked power to […]
- Bank Credit Growth Slows To -0.5% YoY, Every Monthly Payrolls Print In 2023 Has Been Revised Lower
Under Bidenomics, bank credit growth fell by 0.5% YoY. Recent data reveals that the perceived robustness of the Bidenomics economy is short-lived, with figures typically revised downwards after initial positive announcements. This trend is evident in the U.S. labor data, where every monthly payrolls report in 2023 has seen subsequent downward revisions. Future revisions to payrolls also seem […]
- UMich Sentiment Drops, Inflation Expectations Climb in September
PCE indicators hint at rising inflation, echoing trends in CPI and PPI. UMich inflation outlooks increased, but were lower than August's readings. Despite the market predicting inflation growth, sentiment suggests a slowdown. UMich Sentiment, while up from its preliminary figure, declined from August. Economic uncertainty is fueled by potential government shutdowns and auto industry disputes. […]
- Moody’s Sounds Alarm Over 'Systemic Risk' in U.S. Leveraged Lending Market
Moody’s warns of escalating systemic risks in the US financial system due to a "race to the bottom" between banks and private credit funds backing high-risk leveraged buyouts. With worsening economic conditions, there's a surge in banks and private debt sectors financing subpar deals. As private equity picks up pace and hunts bigger deals, banks attempt to reclaim their dominant position in the […]
- For the Average American, Homes Are “Unaffordable” in 99% of the Nation
The majority of Americans, with an average income of $71,214, can't afford homes in 99% of US counties, states an ATTOM report. Surging mortgage rates above 7% and a lack of homes for sale have driven up the national median home price to $407,100, a 3.9% increase from the previous year. This challenging market demands 35% of an individual's yearly salary, hitting first-time buyers hardest.
- The Neoclassical Growth of Chinaby Yves Smith
A model finds that China closely tracked the trajectory of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Does this claim hold up to close scrutiny?
- Bond crisisby Alasdair Macleod
As the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note soared, gold and silver came under selling pressure this week. But ahead of the weekend, bear closing in precious metals is evident. In European trade this morning, silver rallied to $23.00, down a net 55 cents from last Friday’s close. And gold traded at $1871, down The post Bond crisis first appeared on SchiffGold.
- 30Y Rate Up to 7.31%, Highest Since Dec 2000, Mortgage Rate Up 69% And 10Y Treasury Up 4.67%
Under Biden's administration, Freddie Mac’s mortgage rate has skyrocketed to a staggering 7.31% - a peak not witnessed since December 2000, marking a 69% surge. Despite the Fed holding a colossal $2.5 TRILLION in agency MBS on its balance sheet, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen sharply to 4.67%.
- BOJ Loosens Grip: Biggest Selloff in 25 Years Hits Japan Bonds
Amidst a fragile economy, Japan's government bonds experienced their most severe quarterly selloff in over two decades, plunging 3% in Q3. This downturn underscores the market's heavy dependence on the central bank's actions. With rising speculation of the Bank of Japan terminating its negative-rate policy, Japan's looming debt crisis becomes increasingly worrisome.
- Fed's Favorite Inflation Signal Remains 'Sticky' High as Savings Rate Tumbles To One-Year Lows
The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, Core PCE Deflator, dropped to 3.9% YoY in August. Goods prices surged, while services inflation remained high. Adjusted for inflation, real personal spending rose, but Real Disposable Income declined 0.2% MoM for the third consecutive month. Wage growth slowed across the board. The savings rate fell sharply to a one-year low of 3.9%, underscoring […]
- Bill Ackman Warns: Treasury Yields Surging, Investors Urged to Avoid U.S. Government Debt"
The 30-year Treasury bond yield has surged since Ackman's early August remarks, experiencing its steepest quarterly rise since 1987. With anticipated enduring inflation and the U.S. government's growing budget deficit, Ackman warns of inadequate returns from bonds. He foresees the 10-year Treasury yield potentially exceeding 5% soon due to these deficits and adverse market dynamics. The rising […]
- Banks' Ongoing Demand for Fed's Emergency Funds at Near-Record Level
US money market funds saw a $6.3BN inflow this week, nearing record highs after a previous outflow. Retail funds increased by $7.8BN, but institutional funds declined by $1.5BN. The Fed's balance sheet shrank by $22BN, its smallest since June 2021. The emergency funding facility use remains at a high of $108BN. Concerns grow as banks might face a $108BN deficit soon, possibly leading to prolonged […]
- Links 9/29/2023by Yves Smith
- We’ve Been Gaslit! SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Sept. 29, 2023by SchiffGold
The economy is great! Inflation is dead! We’re on our way to a soft landing! We keep hearing messages like this over and over again from Fed officials, the Biden administration, academics, and financial news pundits. But doesn’t the spin seem a little detached from reality? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host The post We’ve Been Gaslit! SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Sept. 29, 2023 […]
- IM Doc on the Corruption of Public Health and the Breakdown of Medical Practice in the USby Yves Smith
Sadly, famed short seller David Einhorn's saying applies to US public health: "No matter how bad you think it is, it's worse."
- As India-Five Eyes Relations Sour, US Ratings Agency Moody’s Takes Aim at India’s Aadhaar Digital ID Systemby Nick Corbishley
The report calls into question key aspects of India's digital ID program, including its heavily centralised nature, the reliability of its biometric identification systems and its vulnerability to data breaches.
- Kick Start or Kick Over — Can The US Defeat Russia in the Lithium Battery War?by Yves Smith
Russia's substantial lithium reserves and very competitive production costs imply that Russia will soon become a critically important source.
- Another Recession Indicator Refuses to See a Recession: Corporate Profits without Federal Reserve Banks Hit Recordby Wolf Richter
Massively inflated during the pandemic, corporate profits are still not normalizing, and bode well for future investments and economic growth.
- The Silent Depression and Current Economic Realities
A noted financial analyst argues that despite the historical advantages of capitalism, the average living standard is now declining because of heightened government interventions, including taxation, regulations, and inflation. He refers to the present economic scenario as the "Silent Depression" and anticipates it will escalate into a "Greater Depression," surpassing the severity of the 1930s. […]
- Royal Mint Reports Soaring Demand for Gold and Silver Investments
Amid the cost-of-living crisis, the Royal Mint reported a surge in gold and silver investments as alternatives to disappointing traditional savings and stock returns. First-time precious metal investors increased by 17% in the first half of 2023, with gold investments up by 10% and silver by 16%. Andrew Dickey, the Royal Mint's director of precious metals, noted that individuals are diversifying […]
- Declining Industrial Metals vs. Precious Is Consistent With Waning Global Growth
In the event of a US recession, Treasury 10-year yields might approach a robust 3%, and the S&P 500 might stabilize around 3,000. This adjustment aligns with the anticipated movement of copper towards a solid $3 a pound. The rise in precious metals compared to industrial metals is consistent with a slowdown in global growth, positioning gold and other precious metals favorably. Bloomberg […]
- 2:00PM Water Cooler 9/28/2023by Lambert Strether
~ Today's Water Cooler ~
- The U.S. Is Going to Have a Debt Crisis: Ray Dalio
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns of a potential U.S. debt crisis, especially as U.S. debt surpassed $33 trillion. The rise in debt, accelerated by a 50% increase in federal spending from 2019-2021, has heightened concerns of a slowing economy and rising interest rates. Dalio predicts economic growth could plummet to near zero. This comes amidst fears of a government shutdown if […]
- The Silver Denarius and the Fall of Rome
The tale of the Roman Denarius offers not just a glimpse into the past but also a warning for the future...
- “All Hell To Break Loose”
Find out how the average taxpayer owes a staggering quarter-million dollars in taxes!
- The Narrative Is Changing on a Soft-Landing
The financial news media, previously optimistic, are now blatantly pessimistic. Past assurances about inflation control and a "soft landing" for the economy have been replaced by stark warnings. Stock markets are faltering, fears of a recession loom, and the U.S. economy shows signs of strain. Today's narrative starkly contrasts past predictions, casting doubt on the media's credibility.
- Inflation Hits Workers’ Wages as 60% of Americans Are Still Living Paycheck to Paycheck
Amid persistent high inflation and interest rates, 60% of U.S. adults live paycheck to paycheck. With the consumer price index up 3.7% from last year, stagnant wages strain households. The Federal Reserve's 11 rate hikes haven't stemmed inflation, severely impacting lower-income individuals. Essential costs continue to rise, and 70% of Americans report financial stress, with less than half having […]
- Stock Market Outlook Looks Like 2008, Warns JPMorgan's Quant Expert
JPMorgan strategist, Marko Kolanovic, warns of looming downturns as the S&P 500 nears his 4,200 target, drawing parallels to the 2008 crisis. He cites challenges like overvalued markets, tech stock gains concentration, and tighter financial conditions, including rising interest rates. With increasing delinquencies in credit and loans, Kolanovic urges caution, noting that current market […]
- Markets Held Up on Just 8 Giants: S&P 500 Equal Weight Index Turns Red YTD
The S&P 500 Equal Weight index has plummeted, erasing gains and revealing a bleak broader market concealed by the performance of tech giants like Nvidia, Tesla, and Apple in the standard S&P 500. Dominance of these few stocks heightens market vulnerabilities. As the Federal Reserve scales back with a record QT nearing $1 trillion and prolonged higher rates, the markets are strained. QE […]
- Pending Home Sales Hit Record Low in August
Pending home sales in August plummeted 7.1% MoM, drastically worse than the forecasted 1% drop, marking the sharpest decline since September 2022. This downturn mirrors the record lows during the COVID lockdown. Every region faced setbacks, with some regions hitting their weakest since 2001. Experts warn of a bleak outlook with rising mortgage rates, raising concerns about the housing market's […]
- There’s a Trump Era/Charles Koch Big Law Firm Behind the Supreme Court Case that Hopes to Gut the Federal Agency that Fights for the Little Guyby Pam Martens
There’s a Trump Era/Charles Koch Big Law Firm Behind the Supreme Court Case that Hopes to Gut the Federal Agency that Fights for the Little Guy By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: September 28, 2023 ~ Next Tuesday, the U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in a case that could have far reaching effects on the legislative ability of Congress to have flexibility in how it funds regulatory […]
- $100 Oil Is Bad For The Economy (And For OPEC+)by Yves Smith
$100 a barrel oil does not bode well for the economy in the US and even more so around the world. What might the political fallout be?
- Surprising Collapse in Personal Consumption in Latest GDP Revision
The U.S. economic outlook darkens as the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases revised Q2 GDP data. Personal consumption, a pivotal component of GDP, was a significant letdown. Initially expected at 1.7%, it came in at just 0.8%, a dramatic drop from Q1's 3.8%. This marked the worst consumer performance since the COVID-ridden Q2 of 2020. Despite headline GDP figures meeting expectations, the […]
- The End of the Road for the Dollarby Alasdair Macleod
With the Asian hegemons undoubtedly able to introduce gold standards, where does that leave the dollar? This article describes just how precarious the fiat dollar’s position has become. For now, the dollar appears to be buoyed up by rising bond yields. However, as they rise further portfolio losses for foreign investors are likely to increase, The post The End of the Road for the Dollar first […]
- Jobless Claims Hit Lowest Levels in a Year
Initial jobless claims stood at 204k for the consecutive second week, noticeably below the anticipated 215k. This marks the lowest non-seasonally-adjusted claims since September 2022, registering at 175. While anomalies such as the Ohio fraud and Minnesota extensions seem largely rectified, claims in Ohio surged, only surpassed by California. Continuing claims remain under 1.7 million. Yet, […]
- The Truth About the Government Shutdown
In the world of politics, there's often more to the story than meets the eye.
- The Dangerous Myth of a Soft Landingby Peter Schiff
The Federal Reserve has pushed interest rates to over 5%. At the most recent FOMC meeting, it indicated that it may have to hold rates higher for longer. But the mainstream remains unconcerned. The narrative is that the Fed has successfully raised rates to fight inflation and is now guiding the economy to a “soft The post The Dangerous Myth of a Soft Landing first appeared on SchiffGold.
- Jim Grant: Fed Policy Is a Ph.D. standard of Improvisationby SchiffGold
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, and people are wondering, what will it do next? The messaging coming from the central bankers is that they will need to keep interest rates higher for longer. But is that possible given the economic conditions and all of the debt in the economy? Investment and economics writer The post Jim Grant: Fed Policy Is a Ph.D. standard of Improvisation first appeared […]
- Links 9/28/2023
- The State of Antitrust and the FTC’s Case Against Amazonby Yves Smith
The FTC suit against Amazon argues the online giant coerced its online merchants. How does that map against antitrust law?
- US Home Insurers Are Leaving Climate Risk Areas. We Need Affordable Housing Nowby Yves Smith
When the US housing crisis meets the looming insurance crisis, only government intervention will avert catastrophe.
- Gold’s Monetary Importance - The Stock-To-Flow Ratio the Most Significant Reason: Ingoldwetrust
Gold's Market Dynamics: Unlike consumer goods, gold isn't consumed but held. Its market is unique: gold holders can be both sellers and buyers. An uptick in trades doesn't necessarily mean higher demand. Gold's supply represents owners' willingness to sell at certain prices. Miners, despite their minor role, accept market-set prices. Gold's value hinges on both its historical monetary status and […]
- Toward the Brink - This Time Might Be Different: Rckards
A potential U.S. government shutdown looms on Sept. 30, and if it happens, it might be worse than previous instances. Historical shutdowns usually stemmed from policy disputes, but this one revolves around fundamental disagreements over government financing. A deeply divided Congress, especially within the Republican House caucus, and a history of policy fights make a resolution by the deadline […]
- Bank of America’s Unrealized Losses $106 Bl. 34% of All Unrealized Losses Reported by 4,645 Banks
Bank of America reported a staggering $105.79 billion in unrealized losses on its held-to-maturity (HTM) securities for Q2 2023. This amount represents 34% of all unrealized losses from 4,645 FDIC-insured banks. Despite being the second-largest bank in the U.S., its losses significantly outpace those of its peers like JPMorgan Chase and Citibank. Questions arise as to why Bank of America's losses […]
- America's Most Splendid Housing Bubble, September Update
The Case-Shiller indices show a significant rise in housing bubbles since 2000. Miami and San Diego lead with a 317% surge, with index values at 417, followed closely by Los Angeles at +316%. The index uses a "sales pairs" method, offering a more accurate representation of housing price trends. Essentially, it measures home-price inflation. However, not all cities experienced such growth. […]
- S&P 500 Equal Weight Index Dips into Red Year-to-Date. Shows Entire Market Depends on 8 Giants, but They’re Swooning Tooby Wolf Richter
QE giveth, QT taketh away. The two sucker rallies this year of the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index got wiped out.
- Robert Shiller: The S&P Is Heading Below 3,000 on Basic Math
While a drastic 40% market plunge might not be imminent, the numbers suggest that a significant drop is plausible. If real rates dip and growth remains stagnant, the S&P could potentially fall to 3,500, marking an 18% descent from its September 26 position. The historically low real rates of recent years have inflated PE multiples and driven profit margins to unprecedented highs. As real […]
- Why Treasury Bond Yield and Surging US Dollar Are Weighing on Stocks
The US dollar index soared to its peak since November, while the 10-Year Treasury Note yield reached a high not seen since 2007, causing stock markets to plummet. The Fed's recent announcements caught investors off guard, leading to instability in global markets. Both the dollar and the 10-year yield are nearing an alarming "overbought" status, a concerning signal not seen in a year.
- Mortgage Rates Hit Highest Level In 20 Years - Purchase Demand Down -27% Since Last Year
Mortgage rates have hit their highest levels in over 20 years, with the 30-year fixed rate reaching 7.41 percent, the highest since December 2000. Consequently, mortgage applications have declined 1.3 percent, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Additionally, the volume of mortgage loan applications and the Purchase Index have also seen significant decreases compared to the previous […]
- With the Yuan Falling and a Property Market Crash, China’s Gold Prices Are Hitting Global Records
China's bullion market has surged, with gold prices in Shanghai rising sharply over international rates. Due to a declining yuan, a slumping property market, and capital control measures, Chinese investors are flocking to gold as a safety measure. This contrasts with earlier in the year when economic uncertainties had people conserving cash.
- Former S&P Ratings Chairman Says the U.S. Is Weaker Now Than When It Downgraded in 2011
S&P's former chairman, John Chambers, suggests the U.S. is in a worse fiscal state than during its 2011 credit downgrade. With an imminent threat of a government shutdown due to deepening political divisions, the nation's credit is at risk. Current data reveals a U.S. deficit of over 7% of GDP and soaring government debt at 120%. The unstable political climate, marked by past shutdowns, debt […]
- Investors Fear Unsustainably High Interest Rates Will Spark Bank-Loan Defaults
U.S. government bond prices have plummeted, unsettling the stock market. Treasury yields have surged to 16-year highs, negatively impacting stocks, with tech giants like Amazon and Apple seeing notable declines. The robust U.S. economy and Federal Reserve's rate hikes contribute to the instability. The S&P 500's growth has been stunted, and the persistent rise in bond yields, driven by […]
- JPMorgan’s Settlements Reach $365 Million Over Civil Claims It Banked Jeffrey Epstein’s Sex Trafficking of Minors; Criminal Charges Could Lie Aheadby Pam Martens
JPMorgan’s Settlements Reach $365 Million Over Civil Claims It Banked Jeffrey Epstein’s Sex Trafficking of Minors; Criminal Charges Could Lie Ahead By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: September 27, 2023 ~ JPMorgan Chase would like the public to believe that it’s going to walk away from the sleaziest financial crime of the century just $365 million poorer in the process. That’s just not […]
- Thanks to Downward Revisions for July, Durable Goods Orders Unexpectedly Bounced in August
July's durable goods orders were revised downward to a -5.6% MoM drop, the most significant since COVID lockdowns. August saw a slight rise of 0.2% MoM, against an expected -0.5%. Excluding transports, orders increased by 0.4% MoM, after July's revision from +0.4% to +0.1%. Core capital goods orders, a measure of equipment investment, grew 0.9% in August after a 0.4% decline in July. This metric […]
- Leverage and High-Interest Rates Will Bring About a Crisis
Economic momentum is dwindling. With this, we can anticipate decreased economic activity and potentially falling asset prices. High leverage and soaring interest rates might trigger a significant crisis, possibly worse than last March's banking situation. Historically, the Federal Reserve's interventions, such as reducing interest rates and implementing quantitative easing, haven't always […]
- Major U.S. Retailers Are Seeing Unprecedented Levels of Theft, Rampant Crime in Their Stores
Retail crime increased in 2022, leading to a loss of $112.1 billion in inventory, a jump from $93.9 billion the previous year, according to the National Retail Federation. The rise caused retailers to adapt: many heightened security measures, increased employee training against violence, and modified store operations. A notable reaction was Target's decision to close nine stores. This escalation […]
- Americans Aren’t Buying the “Great Economy” Narrativeby Michael Maharrey
The Fed people insist the economy is strong. They upped their GDP growth projections at their last meeting. Joe Biden thinks the economy is strong. He keeps bragging about the marvelous achievements of “Bidenomics.” Mainstream economists keep telling us the economy is strong. But the average American isn’t buying any of it. (Perhaps price inflation The post Americans Aren’t Buying the […]
- Peter Schiff: It’s the Beginning of the End of This Whole Phony Economyby SchiffGold
Interest rates continue to push relentlessly higher. As Peter Schiff explained in his podcast, that’s a big problem when the entire economy is built on a foundation of cheap money. But most people in the mainstream don’t seem to grasp the gravity of the situation. They don’t realize that we are at the beginning of The post Peter Schiff: It’s the Beginning of the End of This Whole Phony […]
- The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, September Update: Spring Bounce Fades. 20-City Index -0.6% from Peak in 2022, Flat Year-over-Yearby Wolf Richter
San Francisco -11% from peak, Seattle -10%, followed by Las Vegas, Phoenix, Portland, Denver, Dallas, San Diego, Los Angeles, Tampa.
- Presenting The iPhone/Gold Ratio 2023: Incrementum
Comparing gold only to fiat currencies can only capture its properties so far. This is why we are comparing it to the iPhone. In the realm of tech and economics, the iPhone 15 Pro costs 0.78 oz. of gold, a notable drop from the iPhone 14 Pro's 0.87 oz. and the first iPhone's 0.92 oz. in 2007. For gold investors, it means a cheaper iPhone in gold terms, even though its USD price has increased by […]
- Entering the Next Phase of the Commodities Supercycle
Since 1791, there have been six significant Commodities Supercycles, each spanning 12 to 24 years. We're currently navigating the seventh, which started in March 2020. The previous cycle from 1999 to 2011 witnessed remarkable price escalations: oil jumped from $10 to $150 a barrel, copper rose from 60 cents to $4.60 a pound, gold leaped from $250 to $1921 an ounce, and corn surged from $2 to $8 a […]
- BRICS Nations Dump $123 Billion in U.S. Treasuries in 2023
BRICS nations are aggressively divesting from U.S. Treasury bonds in a move against the U.S. economic policies. They dumped $18.9 billion just this month, totaling a staggering $122.7 billion in 2023. China, leading the trend, offloaded $117.4 billion of U.S. debt this year. Other members like Brazil and India have also reduced their holdings, with India even abandoning the U.S. dollar in forex […]
- 4 Short Interviews: Week #1 UAW Strikeby jackrasmus
As supplement to my print Article on the UAW strike posted below, 3 shorter (15-20 min.)radio interviews on the strike, week 1, are available as follows: Sept. 22: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1sQgvXvcX7bgS6O6IcORgt4cFxksCIWiq/view?pli=1 Sept. 21: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fbfbJOp1ZyAIDgkx6_AAqa6-UhoGW05A/view Sept. 15 […]
- Fiat Paper Currency And The Damage Done
The decades-long fiat paper money system has led to global economic instability. Central banks' manipulation of interest rates since 1981 has caused surging debts, devaluation of savings, and promoted speculation over hard work. This has also fueled wars and birthed unsustainable businesses, while exacerbating societal wealth disparities and inflating prices. Gold offers a potential solution as a […]
- Growing American Anxiety: September's Consumer Confidence Drop
American consumer confidence took a concerning hit this month, more than analysts anticipated, suggesting gloomier economic prospects ahead. The Conference Board highlighted a sharp decline in consumers' outlook for the future, often an early warning of an impending recession. Factors like escalating interest rates and dimming job prospects have raised concerns. Moreover, notable retailers like […]
- Prices of New Houses Drop, Sales Drop, Supply Jumpsby Wolf Richter
Cut the price, and they will not come? Homebuilders, in a tough market, compete with homeowners who are still delusional.
- Because it Doesn't Know What Else To Do - The Fed Holds the Fed Funds Rate Steady
Reading between the lines reveals the Fed's desperate wish for inflation to subside to a politically palatable level without further rate hikes or a looming recession. Yet, their strategy seems rooted in mere "hope" rather than clear foresight. The FOMC members' hesitancy to forecast rate reductions before the end of 2024 speaks volumes, hinting at their underlying concerns about persistent, […]
- US New Home Sales Crashed -8.7% MoM In August As Mortgage Rates Surge
August witnessed a drastic 8.7% MoM drop in new home sales, the steepest since September 2022. With the median sales price of new homes slightly declining to $430,300, it's still alarmingly higher than pre-pandemic rates. A Redfin report revealed a worrying trend: about 60,000 home deals, or 16% of homes under contract, fell through. Veteran agents report unprecedented deal cancellations. As […]
- Regulators on Edge as Debt-Fueled Bet on US Treasuries Intensifies
A year ago, the UK bond market saw upheaval. Now, there's growing unease over the $25tn US government bond market. The Bank for International Settlements and the US Federal Reserve are alarmed by increased hedge fund bets, especially the high-leverage basis trade. With leveraged positions nearing $900bn, any disruption to the US Treasury market could have global repercussions. Past interventions […]
- Bank of America’s Unrealized Losses on HTM Debt Securities Total $106 Billion; 34 Percent of All Such Unrealized Losses Reported by 4,645 Banksby Pam Martens
Bank of America’s Unrealized Losses on HTM Debt Securities Total $106 Billion; 34 Percent of All Such Unrealized Losses Reported by 4,645 Banks By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: September 26, 2023 ~ According to Bank of America’s federal regulatory filing known as the Call Report, for the quarter ending June 30, 2023, it had $105.79 billion in unrealized losses on its held-to-maturity (HTM) […]
- CBDC's, It’s Not Coming - t’s Already Here: Rickards
The push for a cashless society is growing, backed by digital payment conveniences. However, there's a risk of losing control and privacy. Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) amplify these concerns by granting governments direct oversight of transactions. Citibank's "Citi Token Services (CTS)" mirrors these CBDC features, signaling an accelerated move towards this model. Protecting oneself […]
- The Meltdown of the World’s Biggest Crypto Firm
Binance, once the dominant force in the crypto world after FTX's crash, is now facing challenges. U.S. agencies' enforcement threats have led to over a dozen senior executives departing and the layoff of 1,500 employees. Binance's market share has decreased from 70% to 50% this year. With the SEC suing both Binance and Coinbase, there are concerns about the future of the crypto industry. If […]
- Tumbling Deposits, Rising Unrealized Losses: The Perfect Storm Hits Big Banks
JPMorgan Chase has controversially moved significant securities into the held-to-maturity (HTM) category, resulting in an unrealized loss of $36.7 billion. Many of these transfers weren't initially designated as HTM. Despite these alarming practices, CEO Jamie Dimon challenges federal regulators' efforts to increase capital levels for large banks. Widespread unrealized losses across the banking […]
- Why Rising Long-Term Treasury Rates Could Ripple Across the Economy
Longer-term interest rates are surging, negatively impacting stocks and potentially the broader economy. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a 16-year high at 4.52%. This uptick threatens to further depress the housing market and deter corporate investments. Despite market concerns, Fed chair Jerome Powell appears unfazed, prompting critiques from experts who believe the Fed may be underestimating the […]
- Jamie Dimon Warns: World Unprepared for Fed's Stagflation Response
JPMorgan's CEO warns of the risk of stagflation and believes the world is unprepared for central banks raising interest rates. He suggests the jump from a 5% to a 7% rate would be notably harmful. Emphasizing caution, he questions if businesses can handle a 7% rate alongside stagflation. Some experts argue such high rates could burst asset bubbles.
- Americans Begin to Feel the Sting of Fed Rate Hikes
Rising interest rates due to Federal Reserve's decisions are straining American finances. Consumers face higher costs for home and car loans, and existing debts are becoming pricier. While the Fed intends to maintain these high rates, families reliant on borrowing are feeling the pressure. New mortgages now average a 7% rate, nearly doubling from two years ago, significantly raising monthly […]
- Tanzania Establishing Gold Reservesby SchiffGold
Yet another country wants gold. On Monday (Sept. 25), the Bank of Tanzania (BoT) announced it is buying gold from domestic sources to establish its own reserves. Tanzania Minister for Finance Dr. Mwigulu Nchemba announced plans to establish a national gold reserve during the 2023–24 budget presentation. “The bank is therefore purchasing gold from domestic The post Tanzania Establishing Gold […]
- Americans Worried About a Credit Crunch; What Happens When Consumers Can’t Charge It?by Michael Maharrey
Americans are worried about a looming credit crunch. That’s a big problem for an economy that runs on credit cards. One of the reasons for economic optimism you’ll hear bandied about out there in the mainstream is “the American consumer is strong” and consumer spending is “holding up” despite price inflation. But nobody seems to The post Americans Worried About a Credit Crunch; What […]
- It’s the Smart Money that Took a 77% Loss on Instacart, Not Retail Investorsby Wolf Richter
Instacart enters my pantheon of Imploded Stocks.
- How Gold Fits in Your Portfolio
In 2023, gold continues to be a valuable asset for diversified portfolios, showing resilience even with market shifts. The World Gold Council reported a 20% year-over-year increase in gold investments, mainly driven by bar, coin, and OTC market growth. Historically, gold thrives during financial turmoil, offering portfolio diversification and liquidity. Since 1971, gold has matched equities in […]
- Record High Estimated for World Official Gold Holdings
In Q2 2023, global gold reserves peaked at 38,764 tonnes, surpassing the 1965 record. This shift suggests a new gold era, with central banks diversifying from the US dollar, especially since the 2008 crisis. As gold's value has grown by 66% and its share in international reserves rises, it's clear that its significance in the global monetary system is increasing.
- The SEC Is Now Tracking Your Stock Trades by Your Social Security Number
The SEC's 2012 rule for a Consolidated Audit Trail has raised significant privacy concerns. Originally intended to monitor trading activity following the 2010 flash crash, the rule now mandates tracking of every trade order, modification, and execution across U.S. markets. Alarmingly, it also collects personal information like account and Social Security numbers, accessible to multiple […]
- “Wealth Disparity Monitor” of the Fed’s Money Printer Era, September 2023
The Fed's latest quarterly data reveals significant wealth disparities in the US. The top 0.1% of households hold nearly 13% of total wealth, while the top 10% possess 56%. In contrast, the majority of Americans, falling between the top 10% and bottom 50%, have an average net worth of $807,000. Although many in the bottom 50% have some assets, the lower 20% are near or at the poverty line.
- 3rd Consecutive Year Of Negative Returns On 10-year Treasuries, Which Has Never Happened In History
US 10-year Treasury yields are nearing 4.50%, the highest since 2008, risking a third consecutive year of negative performance, unprecedented in history. Mortgage rates have increased by 156% to 7.3% since Biden took office, with the US Treasury 10y-2y yield curve staying inverted. US debt is projected to reach 181% of GDP, far surpassing previous concerns of an 80% threshold.
- Slowly, BRICS Will Change The World
China and Russia lead in global gold production. Historically, gold has been significant in money systems and may become crucial again, countering central bankers' habits of money printing since 1914. Critics have dismissed gold, ignoring its historical prominence. Nixon's departure from the gold standard underscores its value. Many anticipate the decline of the Petrodollar and consequently, the […]
- Chinese Gold Buying Sparks Bullion Paradigm Shift
The traditional link between gold prices and interest rates seems to be breaking. Previously, low rates meant high gold prices, and high rates led to a drop in gold prices. However, despite recent hikes in inflation-adjusted rates, gold prices remain steady. Factors like central bank buying and bets on a US economic slowdown are keeping gold prices up, challenging conventional wisdom.
- Gold's Ominous Warning: Is China's Economy in Peril?
Is the canary in the coal mine signaling trouble in China?
- Look What You Can Pay for with 529 Education Savings Moneyby Bob Williams
529 Education Savings Accounts are named after the section of the IRS code that outlines the rules of the plan. When it began in 1996, the 529 plan was a new way to save and pay for higher education; the money got to grow tax-free and then could be withdrawn tax-free if it was used [...]
- Can the U.S. Economy Survive Four Simultaneous Shocks at Once?
The U.S. economy is facing simultaneous threats: potential auto worker strikes, a possible government shutdown, the resumption of student loan payments, and rising oil prices. Together, these could exacerbate an already cooling economy due to high interest rates. Predicted economic growth for the fall shows a sharp decline. Strikes might stall auto sector recovery, while a government shutdown […]
- Consumers Say They’re Still Paying Too Much as the Fed Is Tries to Curb Inflation
Despite a reported slowdown in inflation, Americans are still grappling with high prices for essential items like gas and food. This ongoing financial strain is contributing to a growing discontent towards the Biden administration's economic policies, with many individuals struggling to manage their daily expenses. The perceived economic relief is not aligning with the public's lived reality, […]
- Credit Card Losses Soar to Heights Unseen Since the Great Financial Crisis
Goldman Sachs reports that credit card companies are facing their fastest rate of losses since the 2008 recession. With current losses at 3.63% and U.S. credit card debt exceeding $1 trillion, these losses are expected to rise to 4.93%. Analyst Ryan Nash finds this trend unusual as it's occurring outside of a recession, and he predicts the peak won't be reached until late 2024 or early 2025.
- Watching the Real-Estate Bust
The pandemic severely affected mall retailers. The mall's occupancy plummeted from 96% to below 50%. Owners Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield and Brookfield Properties ceased mortgage payments, and by August, major brands like Nordstrom exited. The mall's declining foot traffic led Westfield to revert the property to the lender. Surging interest rates negatively impacted real estate values, and tenants […]
- Charting the Global Economy: Central Banks Hawkish Holds
US and UK policymakers are at odds over decisions. The Bank of Japan downplays potential rate hikes. US hospitality faces challenges adapting to post-pandemic cost-efficiencies. Europe is on a downturn; the Bank of England freezes rate hikes amidst looming recession fears, and UK inflation drops unexpectedly. Globally, central banks are wary, with the world economy poised for a slowdown. Rising […]
- China Central-Bank Adviser Urges Drastic Structural Changes for China’s Struggling Economy
China's capacity for monetary policy easing is limited, said Liu Shijin, an adviser to the People's Bank of China. He warned of increasing side effects if China relies solely on macro policies to stabilize growth, emphasizing the need for structural reforms. Liu's comments come as China's economic recovery post-COVID falters due to weak consumption, decreasing exports, and a growing property debt […]
- US Senator Allegedly Bribed With Goldby Michael Maharrey
Last week, a federal grand jury indicted Democrat Senator Bob Menendez and his wife Nadine Arslanian Menendez on bribery charges. According to the indictment, the senator and his wife took bribes, including 13 gold bars, from three New Jersey businessmen with Egyptian ties. The indictment charges that Wael Hana, Jose Uribe and Fred Daibes paid The post US Senator Allegedly Bribed With Gold first […]
- The UAW Strike: Historic Fight to End 44 Years of Concession Bargainingby jackrasmus
This past weekend, Sept. 23, the UAW strike entered its second week. Little movement on demands by the big 3 auto companies has prompted the union, UAW, to now broaden the strike to 38 plants. For the entire first week, Sept. 15-22, the union leadership struck only 3 plants to start off the strike. One
- My “Wealth Disparity Monitor” of the Fed’s Money Printer Era, September 2023: Now There’s Inflation, QT, and Rate Hikesby Wolf Richter
It’s just not the same anymore with QT and rate hikes. Household balance sheets by wealth category.
- Weekly Market Pulse: Higher For Longerby Joseph Y. Calhoun III
"Higher for longer." That's what the Fed says they intend to do with interest rates and investors finally decided to believe them last week. Bond yields, which have been stagnant since peaking last October, finally broke above the trading range they've been in for all that time. Short-term rates also moved higher but not as [...]
- Reciprocal Ignorance: East-Westby Michael
Geopolitical Economy Hour, September 23, 2023. BRICS or NATO? G20 or G77? Summits debate changing world order RADHIKA DESAI: Hello and welcome to the 17th Geopolitical Economy Hour, the show that examines the fast-changing political and geopolitical economy of our times. I’m Radhika Desai. MICHAEL HUDSON: And I’m Michael Hudson. RADHIKA DESAI: And today we Continue Reading The post […]
- A Note on a ‘Soft Landing’ for US Economyby jackrasmus
In a recent commentary to a blogpost by Michael Roberts where he argues inflation has been, and remains, largely a supply side driven phenomenon–with which I’ve also argued for months–I provided the following comment to Roberts’ blog and point. I note, however, that Roberts misses discussing an important ‘supply’ factor–corporate price gouging. I also agreed
- QE Giveth, QT Taketh Away: German Home Prices vs. ECB Balance Sheetby Wolf Richter
The QT show started less than a year ago. German home prices -11%, ECB assets -19%.
- The Dangers of Betting Against Silver: Ted Butler
The current price of silver might not truly represent its actual market demand, suggesting potential long-term manipulation. Evident physical shortages and the overly extended short positions in silver derivatives further reinforce this notion. Considering the impossibility of short sellers acquiring the necessary physical silver to offset their positions, the risks of shorting silver are […]
- Despite Dollar Strength Gold Set to Snap Three-Day Losing Streak
Amid deteriorating European economic data and wary central bank decisions, gold stands firm. France's services sector contraction intensifies concerns, prompting experts to scrutinize upcoming central bank actions. While central banks hint at maintaining high interest rates to combat inflation, global policy tightening sends jitters across markets. The rising dollar and treasury yields further […]
- Fed's 'Higher for Longer' Fails to Dampen Precious Metals
Commodities faced a minor decline last week due to hawkish moves by the FOMC and other market corrections. Despite rising bond yields, silver and other precious metals unexpectedly rose, possibly as a hedge against the FOMC's uncertain outcomes, whether that's a soft landing, hard landing, or stagflation.
- Corporate America, “It Feels Different This Time” Bracing for a Lengthy Government Shutdown
A potential government shutdown is deepening the business world's anxiety amid already challenging conditions like inflation and labor strikes. Business leaders are frustrated, seeing it as another avoidable crisis. With no clear solution in sight, there's growing apprehension about prolonged disruption, leading to even more uncertainty in an already unstable environment.
- Oil Could Skyrocket to $150 a Barrel in 2024, Tighter Supply for the Next Decade
Dire underinvestment in the oil industry may cause a severe supply shortage, driving oil prices to a potential $150 a barrel. JPMorgan warns of a decade-long tight supply, with a predicted shortfall of 700,000 barrels a day by 2030 due to stagnant investment, despite rising demand. This bleak outlook is echoed by OPEC+, highlighting chronic underinvestment as the root cause of escalating oil […]
- Recession Warning: Employers Slash Staff at Record Pace Since 2009
The global business landscape is under strain, with the UK signaling a potential worldwide recession. A new survey reveals the UK experienced its fastest employment drop since the 2009 financial crisis. The PMI's decline, a result of weakening demand and rising borrowing costs, echoes broader economic concerns. Experts are drawing alarming comparisons to the 2009 global downturn, raising fears of […]
- European Currencies Under Pressure as Central Bank Support Wanes
European currencies are plummeting, with bleak economic prospects and looming rate cuts. Sterling hit a six-month low against the dollar, while other European currencies are also faltering amid rising oil prices and a strengthening dollar. There's speculation the Euro could approach dollar parity, highlighting Europe's deepening economic troubles.
- US, EU PMIs Signal Slowing Growth, Rising Prices are Signaling Global Stagflation
Euro area growth is stagnating, particularly in France and the UK, despite minor improvements in Germany. Inflationary pressures, though currently moderate, loom on the horizon. The US faces further economic challenges with manufacturing barely recovering and services declining. With slower growth and inflation, central banks are grappling with the looming threat of 'Stagflation'.
- Inflation - The Danger of a ‘Permacrisis’: El-Erian
Central banks, including the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, are grappling with the complexity of addressing prolonged high inflation. Despite recent challenges, like misjudging the transitory nature of inflation and dealing with unpredictable guiding metrics, these institutions now hint at a prolonged period of higher rates. Their previous forecasts have often been inaccurate, […]
- US Debt: We Are Now Officially Paying More Than $2 Billion per Day Just in Interest Expense Alone!
US debt surpassed $33 trillion just 60 hours ago and has increased by an additional $50 billion. This translates to an increase of $833 million in debt every hour. Equally distributing the total US debt to every household would result in a burden of $252,000 per household. Daily interest expenses exceed $2 billion. Furthermore, the debt ceiling remains unlimited until January 2025. Simply […]
- Inflation Adjusted Home Prices Are Now 85% Above Their Average Dating Back to 1900
Accounting for inflation, current home prices surpass any previous records. Homes now cost 20% more than their inflation-adjusted 2008 peak. Shockingly, the median home now sells for an alarming 530% of the median annual income, and the median house payment consumes 49% of median PRE-TAX income. Housing affordability is at its all-time low.
- Mortgage Rates Jump To 23-Year Highs, Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator Declined -7.6% YoY
Bonds have plunged to their weakest levels in years, pushing mortgage rates to near a 23-year high of 7.47% for a 30-year fixed rate. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicator reported a decline of -0.4% for August, with a year-over-year drop of -7.6%. Despite attempts by the Federal Reserve to curb inflation, their efforts fall short. The Fed's target rate has increased rapidly recently, […]
- Why Corporate Profits Will Fall 50%
Growth is linked to increasing debt and spending, but when discretionary spending falls, growth stumbles. High corporate profits are unsustainable, and if they drop to a more historic norm, it could lead to a 2/3 decline in stock valuations. Current stock market values are inflated due to temporary financial conditions and are detached from economic reality.
- Investors Are Dumping Equities at the Fastest Pace Since December
Amid fears of prolonged high interest rates, investors are rapidly withdrawing from equities, says Bank of America Corp. Global equity funds lost $16.9 billion in a week, with US stocks hit hardest. Alarming signs point towards potential market instability by 2024, with major financial firms echoing these concerns.
- Treasury Market Gets Memo with Subject Line: “Higher for Longer” but Someone Scribbled next to it, “Maybe Forever?”by Wolf Richter
“Neutral rate” creeping higher? Oh dearie! Bloodbath at the long end.
- Continuing Jobless Claims Maintain Downward Trend. Revisions?
First-time jobless claims in the U.S. dropped to 201k last week, marking the lowest since January. This decline wasn't influenced by previous irregularities from Ohio and Minnesota. Continuing claims fell below 1.7 million, also a low since January. This robust employment data supports Powell's hawkish position.
- The Escalating Impact of China on Gold Prices
China, in a strategic move, increased its gold reserves in August, positioning itself positively in the global market. While global gold ETFs saw outflows, Chinese ETFs recorded inflows, highlighting the nation's strong inclination towards the precious metal. The Shanghai Premium, an indicator I've monitored, has been consistently bullish, reflecting China's burgeoning demand for gold. With the […]
- More Money Printing Coming for U.S. Amid Rapid Debt Accumulation
Billionaire Ray Dalio warns of the U.S. resorting to printing more money as its debt escalates, leading to potential economic instability. As debt surpasses income, consumption gets strained, pushing the government towards quantitative easing to increase dollar supply. The current national debt is at $33.044 trillion. Dalio also points out a looming risk: if the U.S. prints more money, leading to […]
- Russia Becomes UAE’s Main Important Gold Supplier
Following Western sanctions due to Russia's incursion into Ukraine, the UAE's primary gold supplier in the past year was Russia. According to the UN's Comtrade database, the UAE imported 96.4 tons of Russian gold, constituting about a third of Russia's yearly mining output and marking over a 15-fold yearly surge in gold imports from Russia to the UAE.
- House Committee Advances Bill to Block FED's CBDC Creation
The House Financial Services Committee approved a bill banning the Fed from developing a US central bank digital currency (CBDC). Introduced by Congressman Tom Emmer, the bill highlights concerns about privacy and individual sovereignty. Despite many countries progressing with their own CBDCs, the U.S. remains divided. While the bill's fate in the House is uncertain, its prospects in the […]
- Here's How the United States Punishes it's Own People for Being Poor
The U.S. penalizes the homeless, poor, and mentally ill for merely trying to survive. Despite a housing crisis, laws against basic survival activities rise. The bail system jails those who can't pay, ruining lives. Many can't handle minor emergencies financially, yet face crippling bails and fines. Instead of aiding the mentally ill, the U.S. imprisons them. These harmful policies deepen societal […]
- The Changing the Way America Does Business: Flash Mob Robberies
Rising flash mob thefts across the U.S. are devastating retailers, forcing many to lock up goods reminiscent of restrictive shopping eras. Crimes like the $300,000 heist at a Los Angeles Nordstrom are becoming commonplace. This criminal surge, combined with staff cuts and increased costs, is endangering the traditional shopping experience. The situation reflects a failing system due to misguided […]
- The Best Type of Silver To Invest In...
Navigating the world of silver investment can feel a bit daunting. With some platforms offering hundreds of options, but we’re here to help.
- Demand for Existing Homes Falters Further. Price Cuts, Days on Market, New Listings Rise. Prices Languish below 2022 Peakby Wolf Richter
New listings rose in August, when they normally fall in August, an interesting break in the seasonal pattern.
- Nearly Half of US Young Adults Living With Parents
Amid pandemic lockdowns, record inflation, mounting student debt, and an unstable job market, more young adults are living with their families than striking out on their own. The American Dream seems shattered, with 45% of Americans aged 18 to 29 living with family. This dismal economic situation, reminiscent of the 1940s post-Great Depression era, suggests the current landscape is stacked […]
- Is the Gig Economy Nearing Its Demise?
New interventionist policies threaten to choke the gig economy, imposing burdens like fixed minimum wages. While most gig workers value their independence, these changes risk excluding many, especially the less competitive. The red tape and rising costs will hit businesses and consumers, with food service prices set to surge.
- US Existing Home Sales Collapse In August As Fed to Cut Rates In Future
The Federal Reserve failed to raise rates, despite previous intentions to curb inflation. Their projections even indicate a potential rate decline in 2024. On the housing side, existing-home sales dropped in August, with a significant 15.3% year-over-year decline, suggesting a weakening housing market.
- Here's the Roadmap For Gold & Silver
U.S. Treasuries are now more volatile than gold for the first time in 45 years and that could mean trouble for your portfolio...
- The De-dollarization Drive Is Spreading Wider as Indonesia Is the Latest Nation to Join
Indonesia has taken steps against the dollar's global dominance, launching a National Task Force to promote local currency transactions with partner nations. This move is in line with the growing trend of "de-dollarization," with countries like China, Russia, and India seeking alternatives to the dollar in global trade. The push to distance from the U.S. dollar is seen as an irreversible shift, […]
- Here’s Why You Should Be Worried About the US $33 Trillion Debt, No Matter What Biden & Yellen Say
The U.S. Senate's last-minute move to raise the debt ceiling only delays the looming crisis as the national debt soars past $33 trillion. Treasury Secretary Yellen's attempts to downplay concerns ring hollow, especially as the deficit balloons by a staggering 61% from last year, pushing inflation. This reckless financial path risks our global position, diminishes our economic agility, and […]
- Global Stocks, Gold Tumble As Markets Reel After Fed's Hawkish Pause
Futures are significantly down following the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged, a move mirrored by the SNB and BOE, surprising markets and leading to declines in the franc and sterling. Meanwhile, Riksbank, Norges, and Turkey raised their rates. As of 7:45am, S&P futures fell 0.7% and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 1%. Treasury yields generally rose, with the dollar strengthening against […]
- Philly Fed Business Survey Shows Stagflation
September's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey from the Philly Fed indicated a decline, moving back into contraction. The headline index fell sharply from +12 to -13.5, with significant decreases in new orders and shipments. Despite low jobless claims, the employment index contracted for the sixth consecutive month. Firms reported price increases, with 22% expecting the impacts of COVID-19 […]
- “Carefully,” Dude: Powell at the Press Conferenceby Wolf Richter
Our drunken sailors “hate inflation, hate it,” and are in a foul mood, but are in good shape and keep spending.
- Bond King Jeffrey Gundlach: Warns on Stocks, Dollar Crash, and Recession in 2024
The CEO of DoubleLine Capital, a billionaire, warns of a weakening US economy due to factors like corporate layoffs, high credit-card debt, and increased mortgage rates affecting housing. He also expressed concerns about small businesses refinancing their debts at steeper rates. Gundlach, known as the "Bond King," anticipates a potential recession next year and believes the current economic […]
- FOMC Keeps Rates Unchanged, Points to Hawkish 2024 Outlook
The Federal Reserve maintained rates within the target range of 5.25%-5.5%, a 22-year high. Despite this, they indicated a 'soft landing' and increased growth forecasts. The 'Dot plot' reveals policymakers predict one more rate hike this year. By 2024 and 2025, rate projections increased by half a percentage point, indicating prolonged high rates. The growth forecast for 2023 is now 2.1%, up from […]
- BRICS Expands Its Global Energy and Gold Reserves Footprint with New Members
The BRICS group is expanding, with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Iran, Argentina, and Ethiopia joining, strengthening its global economic and population influence. Post-expansion, the group will control around 41% of global oil production, boosted by the inclusion of significant Middle East oil producers. The bloc also has a combined gold reserve of 5,493 tonnes. The aim is to form a powerful […]
- Redefining 60/40 Portfolios with Gold: Crescat Capital
Equities and US Treasuries are now historically overvalued, indicating limited returns ahead, especially in an inflationary environment. As traditional 60/40 portfolios (equities/bonds) undergo reassessment, gold is gaining prominence. With Treasuries showing greater volatility than gold for the first time in 45 years, and central banks accumulating gold for stability, it's time to consider […]
- A New Default Cycle Has Already Started: Default Rates on All US Corporate Bonds Have Nearly Tripled
Apollo reports that a fresh default cycle has begun, with soaring default rates. U.S. corporate bond default rates have surged from roughly 1% in 2021 to 3% following the Fed's rate hikes. For speculative grade bonds, the default rates have climbed from 1.5% to 5% within a year. If the Fed manages to prevent a recession, it would be remarkable, especially as historical patterns suggest an […]
- 3 Recent Radio Interviews (Sept. 8-Sept. 15)by jackrasmus
1. ‘CRITICAL HOUR’ Radio (19 min.) Topics: UAW Strike Begins: First Take, Latest Inflation CPI Report https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GyQwwtT8Eg_7ZxKiGm7Qud0QvbZXb-cd/view 2. ‘BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY’ Radio (20 min.) Topics: Latest Poverty Rate Rise, Causes of Inflation, Low Paying Jobs https://drive.google.com/file/d/1i0AvEKtqvt4kZ9xoYL_jykOjZIGnjwx0/view 3. ‘POLITICAL MISFITS’ Radio […]
- Charitable Donations: What to Know Before You Giveby Bob Williams
Americans are generous people. According to the Lily Family School of Philanthropy, Americans give almost $485 billion dollars a year to charity. The reasons vary from paying it forward to giving something back or knowledge of the immutable universal law that if you give you will receive (although if that’s why you’re giving it probably [...]
- UAW Strike: Is 4 Decades of Concession Bargaining Over?-audioby jackrasmus
Listen to my Sept. 15 Alternative Visions show analyzing the UAW”s historic strike that began Sept. 15. Will the union’s new strategy prove effective (i.e. striking all 3 auto companies but with a minimal walkout of one plant per company)? What are the union’s demands, clearly intended to reverse the disastrous 2019 strike and major
- Qualified Charitable Donations (QCD) from Inherited IRAsby Bob Williams
At the very moment IRAs joined the retirement savings universe in 1974, so did Required Minimum Distributions (RMD). The government was more than happy to provide a tax-deferred way to save for the future, but it came with a future reckoning—paying taxes on all the contributions and on all future growth whenever an IRA owner [...]
- Weekly Market Pulse: The Dividend Stock Conundrumby Joseph Y. Calhoun III
Everybody loves dividend stocks. Some prefer stocks with high dividend yields and some prefer stocks of companies that have grown their dividends consistently, but dividends are an essential component of many (we think it should be all) investors' portfolios. The two methodologies produce quite different portfolios but over the long run, they both perform very [...]
- How Reliable Are US Job and Inflation Statistics?-audioby jackrasmus
Want to know some of the questionable methods & assumptions that go into US official job and inflation statistics? Listen to my September 8 Alternative Visions radio show. GO TO: https://alternativevisions.podbean.com/e/alternative-visions-how-reliable-is-us-economic-data/
- 2 Confusing IRA Designationsby Bob Williams
“What in the world does that mean?” I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been asked that question during more than 30 years in the financial industry. Clients naming beneficiaries on IRAs, 401(k) accounts, annuities or insurance policies stop dead-in-their-tracks when asked to decide whether they want beneficiaries to receive proceeds from their account [...]
- Financial Conquest So Insidiousby Michael
On this episode of RT’s Going Underground, we speak to former Wall Street Financial Analyst Michael Hudson, author of ‘The Collapse of Antiquity’. He discusses the origins of debt stemming from the oligarchy-dominated Ancient Greek and Roman ‘democracies’, the tradition of debt cancellation, and how the Roman and Greek oligarchies marked a turning point in Continue Reading The post […]
- Weekly Market Pulse: Where Are The Extremes?by Joseph Y. Calhoun III
Every weekend I sit down at my desk and write the title of this post at the top of a legal pad. I make a list of everything I can identify as trading at an extreme in markets. If an investor is to make tactical changes to their portfolio, it is in the extremes where [...]
- Ukraine War & BRICS Expansion (Interview: YouTube & Spotify)by jackrasmus
Watch my latest (Sept 6) extended interview with the FreeThinkers Forum on the Ukraine War latest developments and where US Strategy is headed + the BRICS expansion and what it means for the future of the US global economic empire + impact on US 2024 Elections. Go to Youtube or Spotify to watch: YouTube link:
- Macro: Factory Orders and PMI’sby Douglas R. Terry, CFA
Durable order soften after early summer strength. Total manufacturing remains slightly negative YOY% change. This is a July report. On Friday we received the survey data for August. The 2 indices continue to give a bit of a mixed message. The ISM number, while still contractionary looks like it may have bottomed in July. The [...]
- Roth IRAs and Roth 401(k)s—What’s the Differenceby Bob Williams
Among savers and investors, the terms IRA, 401(k), and Roth are as common as drinking water, and sometimes the lines between them get blurred and the distinctions are lost. I’ve had multiple clients refer to their IRA as their 401(k) because that’s where the money was before it got rolled over. Many people haven’t been [...]
- Weekly Market Pulse: Wrong Againby Joseph Y. Calhoun III
There were some very smart people a year ago saying that you couldn't kill inflation without a big rise in unemployment. Last October, Larry Summers - former Treasury Secretary and President of Harvard - said we'd need a recession and an unemployment rate of 6% to kill inflation. In the summer of last year, he [...]
- High Finance & Investment Colonialismby Michael
“Imperialism: How the struggle of both classes and nations creates our world” Geopolitical Hour 16, August 29, 2023. RADHIKA DESAI: Hello and welcome to the 16th Geopolitical Economy Hour, the fortnightly show in which we discuss the political and geopolitical economy of our times. I’m Radhika Desai. MICHAEL HUDSON: And I’m Michael Hudson. RADHIKA DESAI: Continue Reading The post High […]
- BRICS Keep Buildingby Michael
BRICS+ is here. Danny Haiphong interviews Michael Hudson and Pepe Escobar, August 25, 2023. DANNY HAIPHONG: As you can see, it’s your host, Danny Haiphong, and I’m joined by two very special guests, friends of each other and friends of this show. We have the renowned economist Michael Hudson, author of The Collapse of Antiquity, Continue Reading The post BRICS Keep Building first appeared on […]
- Creating an Independent Worldby Michael
Michael Hudson: Debt, Sponsors of the Wars, Future of USD and BRICS AK: Hello everyone. Welcome back to my channel. I see we are live already, perfectly on time, with a Swiss Precision today, because I have fantastic guest – Mr. Michael Hudson, who has been recommended to me by the one and only Andre Marciano who said, Continue Reading The post Creating an Independent World first […]
- 2 Short Radio Interviews On US Economic Empire in Troubleby jackrasmus
Listen to 2 of my radio interviews this past week with Critical Hour radio, on latest US economic indicators and why US economic empire is being increasingly challenged by the expanding BRICS economies (i.e. China, Russia, Brazil and the 47 new countries now applying to join the BRICS and the new global trading currency they
- The Destiny of Chinaby Michael
Here I present The Destiny of Civilization to a Chinese audience via the Global University of Sustainability. It’s in 4 Parts, originally presented in 2022. Image by 畅 苏 from Pixabay The post The Destiny of China first appeared on Michael Hudson.
- Eleven Objectives of Neoliberalismby Michael
A series of lectures will be coming out of my relationship with Hong Kong’s Global University of Sustainability. These have been tiered to a Chinese audience, revealing another layer to my work. Thanks for all your support via Patreon. Image by Владимир Харитонов from Pixabay The post Eleven Objectives of Neoliberalism first appeared on Michael Hudson.
- 3 Short Radio Interviewsby jackrasmus
Three short radio interviews on key economic topics: Jobs report, dollar decline, continuing services inflation, the real facts about Biden’s rout touting ‘Bidenomics’ and US jobs, inflation, wages, GDP, and Biden’s 3 corporate subsidy Acts (Infrastructure, Chip & Manufacturing, Inflation Reduction) worth $1.65T redistribution of spending from households’ Covid relief to corporate […]
- US Debt Downgrade & Contradictions in US Fiscal Policy-by jackrasmus
Fitch Corp debt rating agency this past week down graded US $34T debt in historic decision, from AAA to AA+, meaning the Federal Reserve will now have to raise rates even further to cover US accelerating deficits and national debt level. US annual interest on its debt payments now exceeds $600B and soon $900B/yr. as
- Towards a Demilitarized Global Currencyby Michael
War hawks’ drive to expand NATO into Asia may destroy Western military alliance Geopolitical Hour, August 4, 2023 RADHIKA DESAI: Hello everyone and welcome to the [15th] Geopolitical Economy Hour, a program that discusses the political and geopolitical economy of our time. I’m Radhika Desai. MICHAEL HUDSON: And I’m Michael Hudson. RADHIKA DESAI: And today Continue Reading The post […]
- NATO Moves to Bait Chinaby Michael
Geopolitical Economy Report, July 28, 2023 NATO failed in Ukraine against Russia. Now it’s targeting China By Radhika Desai and Michael Hudson. 93.1K subscribers Political economists Radhika Desai and Michael Hudson are joined by geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar to discuss how NATO has shifted from its proxy war against Russia in Ukraine to targeting China in Continue Reading The post […]
- Global Economic History in 2.5 Hoursby Michael
Demystifying Economics, June 30 2023 Youtube: https://youtu.be/XyybzneS0To (part 1) and https://youtu.be/pSBvXCwUQYQ (part 2) Dr. Michael Hudson is a professor of Economics at the University of Missouri Kansas City, political consultant, commentator, and journalist. His career has focused on the study of debt, both external and internal, with an eye on what happens when the exponentially […]
- The Financial Upsweepby Michael
A recent presentation to the Global University of Sustainability. Photo by Jason Leung on Unsplash The post The Financial Upsweep first appeared on Michael Hudson.
- The Looming War Against Chinaby Michael
Economic Logic has been Replaced by National Security Overrides The July NATO summit in Vilnius had the feeling of a funeral, as if they had just lost a family member – Ukraine. To clear away NATO’s failure to drive Russia out of Ukraine and move NATO right up to the Russian border, its members tried Continue Reading The post The Looming War Against China first appeared on Michael Hudson.
- Can the US Re-Industrialize?by Michael
Ep. 232 Michael Hudson. Transcript Ep 232 Macro N Cheese – Hudson https://realprogressives.org/podcast_episode/episode-232-is-the-us-a-failed-state-with-michael-hudson/ Michael Hudson [Intro/Music]: America cannot re-industrialize without reversing this whole philosophy of post-industrial society as a class war against labor. You can’t have both. You can’t have a class war against labor […]
- Economic Interference in the Global Southby Michael
RADHIKA DESAI: Hi, everyone, and welcome to this 13th Geopolitical Economy Hour, the fortnightly show on the political and geopolitical economy of our times. I’m Radhika Desai. MICHAEL HUDSON: And I’m Michael Hudson. RADHIKA DESAI: And today, as last time, we are joined by Anne Pettifor to discuss the urgent issue of our time, the Continue Reading The post Economic Interference in the Global […]
- ZIRP’s only Exit path is a Crashby Michael
The United States’ Financial Quandary: ZIRP’s only Exit path is a Crash Abstract Interest-bearing debt grows exponentially, in an upsweep. The non-financial economy of production and consumption grows more slowly as income is diverted to carry the debt overhead. A crash occurs when a large part of the economy cannot pay its scheduled debt service. Continue Reading The post ZIRP’s only Exit […]
- Should there really be a Supreme Court? by Michael
Its role always has been anti-democratic. Vested interests create “checks and balances” primarily to make political systems non-responsive to demands for social reform. Historically, therefore, the checks are politically unbalanced in practice. Instead of producing a happy medium, their effect often has been to check the power of the people to assert their interests at Continue Reading The […]
- America has Just Destroyed a Great Empireby Michael
Herodotus (History, Book 1.53) tells the story of Croesus, king of Lydia c. 585-546 BC in what is now Western Turkey and the Ionian shore of the Mediterranean. Croesus conquered Ephesus, Miletus and neighboring Greek-speaking realms, obtaining tribute and booty that made him one of the richest rulers of his time. But these victories and Continue Reading The post America has Just Destroyed a […]
- Third World-Like Debt Crisisby Michael
A new Third World debt crisis? The need for system change RADHIKA DESAI: Hello and welcome to this 12th Geopolitical Economy Hour, the fortnightly show on the political and geopolitical economy of our times. I’m Radhika Desai. MICHAEL HUDSON: And I’m Michael Hudson. RADHIKA DESAI: And today we are joined by Anne Pettifor to Continue Reading The post Third World-Like Debt Crisis first […]
- Yellen’s Daydreamby Michael
Discussion by Michael Hudson with Kin Chi Lau, Global University, Hong Kong, June 5, 2023 There’s a big dam on the Dnieper River that supplies all of the water to Crimea and they blow it up. Thousands of homes have been flooded. Naturally, the Ukrainians said the Russians did it. The reason that Crimea was Continue Reading The post Yellen’s Daydream first appeared on Michael Hudson.
- A Peculiar Griftby Michael
Patrick Lovell Hi, my name is Patrick Lovell, and I want to welcome you to our latest effort in this podcast that I find myself incredibly compelled to do considering the confusion that we’re all in the midst of. I’m a producer of a five part docuseries known as The Con that is currently available Continue Reading The post A Peculiar Grift first appeared on Michael Hudson.
- Please Use Zerohedge.orgby Tyler Durden
As zerohedge.com is currently experiencing technical issues, please use the following website for all the latest updates: www.zerohedge.org while we resolve our issues.
- Moving Onby Tyler Durden
Dear Zero Hedge readers and blogger fans, it is time to move on......to our new home: www.zerohedge.comFor a little over 6 months blogger has served us well, and yet it reached its limitations some time ago. Our new website, in addition to all currently existing features, now has a full RSS feed, a Contributors section, a complete term Glossary, and a full Forum for reader initiated content, and […]
- Ron Insana On HFTby Tyler Durden
Hey Ron, didn't realize your new position as a contributing editor on CNBC came with the contributing title of "Portfolio Manager." Didn't Stevie put a one year kibbosh on that? But I digress... And in all honesty I am surprised that you seem to have the correct spin on things (as per letter below from Jim Cramer's failed media experiment TheStreet). When you say: I'd prefer that regulators look […]
- 1 To 3 Years Of Securities Recalls Aka Forced Squeeze To Goby Tyler Durden
After numerous posts on this blog discussing speculation of assorted forced buy ins, it seems that this phenomenon is quite factual and quite pervasive among the asset management community. As Zero Hedge has noted previously, forced buy-ins are a critical issue as it leaves shorts at the mercy of their securities lenders and repo desks (most of which are TARP recipients and thus beneficiaries of […]
- NYSE Claims It Does Not Engage In Flash Tradingby Tyler Durden
From an interview earlier with NYSE's Larry Leibowitz, who is surprisingly vocal against Flash trading. Larry - since the NYSE does not engage in Flash trading, can you please indicate whether or not the SLP program provides advance notice to Goldman Sachs ala Direct Edge's ELP program. Regardless, the escalation in the ECN wars is starting and should be a very interesting one to follow, […]
- The Goldman VaR Exemption Question Escalatesby Tyler Durden
It seems only yesterday that Zero Hedge had some questions in regard to Goldman's VaR Fed exemption. No response was received from 85 Broad. Today it appears several Congressmen, lead by Alan Grayson, are willing to drive a sharp stick pretty deep into the hornets' nest, by sending a letter directly to Wall Street Don Ben Bernanke, demanding an explanation exactly to the question of Goldman's VaR […]
- Schumer Letter To Mary Shapiroby Tyler Durden
"I write out of concern that the integrity of our capital markets is being compromised by the ability of some insiders to view order information before it is available to the entire market, and use electronic trading strategies to profit from that information at the expense of other investors."Full letter here:Schumer Letter
- Goldman's Ed Canaday On The Requirements For High Frequency Trading Oversightby Tyler Durden
Damage control... Or is Goldman a little worried what Direct Edge may disclose.From the appended Schumer piece on Bloomberg:“Goldman Sachs believes high-frequency trading should have an accompanying obligation to provide liquidity, and be subject to appropriate regulatory oversight,” Canaday said.Ed, we have been giving you the chance to provide your side of the story for months. Please take […]
- Paul Tudor Jones Exposedby Tyler Durden
The mythical "TRADER - The Documentary" is finally available on You Tube. Relevant "full frontal" insights on the making of a hedge fund legend, and a paleolithic market dominated by monochrome PCs (what, no Bloomberg?), running to the municipal library for that 10-K, and no Flash orders frontrunning every trade. Part 1, and related series (2-7) are on You Tube.hat tip j.m.
- The ETF Gloves Are Offby Tyler Durden
Bearish bets made impossible, compliments of UBS. Either that, or UBS' recently upgraded (with i7 chips of course) computers just cant handle the basis calculations. Either way, is something very fried with ETFs going on behind the scenes? IMPORTANT NOTICE: Inverse, Leveraged and Inverse-Leveraged Exchange Traded Funds are no longer available for new or additional purchases at UBSEffective July […]
- Daily Highlights: 7.27.09by Tyler Durden
Administration looking for Chinese help to narrow trade gap and boost US jobs.Advertisers are getting cheaper rates than a year ago on television commercials.Aetna 2Q profit dropped to $346.6M due to greater commercial expenses and cuts full year forecast.Asian markets were higher Monday on hopes for further earnings recovery, Nikkei hits 10,000 mark.China's new small-company stock exchange gets […]
- Frontrunning: July 27by Tyler Durden
Tenacious G - Is Goldman Sachs evil? Or really good? (NY Mag)Bernanke feared a second great depression; he may still very well get it (WSJ)Europe braced for rising credit card defaults (FT)Loans by U.S. banks shrink as fear lingers (WSJ)Credit crunch part deux (Merk Mutual Funds)Real yields highest since 1994 aid record debt sales (Bloomberg)Ryanair plunges on outlook for fares, earnings […]
- The End Of The End Of The Recessionby Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge, in collaboration with David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist, Gluskin Sheff + Associates, Inc., is pleased to release the attached analysis "The End Of The End Of The Recession." It is our hope that this piece will provide some badly-needed perspective on "the recession is over" debate, a topic that has become as one-sided as it is wrong-headed. Our purposes is to promote […]
- Some Weekend Thoughts By John Mauldinby Unknown
Some interesting stuff in John Mauldin's latest piece. We'll include some pertinent quotes along with our thoughts.China is growing by about 8% a year, which is amazing on the surface of it, as their exports are down about 20% (more in some sectors). How can that be? I continually read about how China is going to lead the world out of its global funk. And 8% growth in GDP does seem pretty strong. […]
- Guest Post: 30 Year Review Ahead of Short Term Auctions, Q2 adv-GDP and Aug 7 NFPby Tyler Durden
Submitted by John Bougearel of Structural Logic
- Weekend Readingby Tyler Durden
Must read: Fast-on-the-draw trades need spot of marshalling (FT, h/t Joe)Roubini Op-Ed on Bernanke: The Great Preventer (NYT)Lennar signals fleeting buildling rally as buyers flee (Bloomberg)JP Morgan to raise banker salaries (FT)The man spreading false rumors about Harman and Textron takeovers (that fooled fast-money's Najarian) found dead in suicide (Bloomberg)Chinese steel executive beaten to […]
- JPM's Carl Carrie On Algorithmic Tradingby Tyler Durden
When the former head of product development in the electronic client solutions group at none other than JP Morgan, Carl Carrie, was last quoted on Zero Hedge, he had some very nasty words for High Frequency Trading. Today, in a podcast transcript by algotradingpodcast Carl shares much more light in just why any reform movement against HFT and PT in general will be met by a huge pushback by […]
- The Flash Trading Org Chartby Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge will attempt to categorize all the relevant players in FlashTradingGate. This is the initial focus of Senator Charles Schumer's recent campaign for market equality and transparency. As we will undoubtedly miss critical connections between these and other pertinent industry players, we solicit readers' insight as we develop this org chart: we invite readers to send emails to: […]
- HFT And Goldman Sachs Boiling Point: NYT And Max Keiserby Tyler Durden
Great recap piece in the New York Times on whether or not Wall Street is picking the pockets of "non-club" investors (read - the guys who do not generate 80% returns with a Sharpe > 5.0 - can someone explain how risk/return works again). The consensus sure looks good for class action lawsuit lawyers. The piece also recognizes the tremendous contribution that Zero Hedge's readership has had in […]
- The New Model?by Tyler Durden
It seems 1-2's and Marla's post earlier could not have come at a more opportune time. In a presentation by Andrew Gluck of Advisor Products, the author touches on some starkly comparable points (and, usefully, those with acute ADHD may find this presentation a tad more palatable, hehe, just kidding Marla) in the context of the epic paradigm shift occurring in the media world. Zero Hedge […]