- Biden to Push Congress on Stimulus After Senators Question Cost
President Joe Biden will escalate appeals for Congress to back his top priority, $1.9 trillion in pandemic relief, seeking to overcome Republican opposition to the plan as he enters his first full week in office.
- U.S. Corporate Buybacks Are on the Rise, Lifting Investor Hopes
U.S. corporate share buyback levels are slowly increasing after last year's pandemic-driven drop-off in spending, and investors are eager to see how much buybacks may support market gains.
- Doug Noland: Short-Term Unsustainable
For years now, I’ve listened as Washington politicians and central bankers admit to the obvious – that the trajectory of our federal debt is unsustainable – while invariably arguing it was not the time to be concerned or address it. With Treasuries blowing right through the 100% of GDP milepost – and likely poised to reach 125% within the next year or two – there’s no time like the […]
- Tesla Is Looking For People To Work On Its Semi
Tesla Is Looking For People To Work On Its Semi By Market Crumbs Last week Aurora and trucking giant PACCAR signed a global strategic partnership to bring a self-driving truck powered by the Aurora Driver to market in the coming years. The partnership is notable because PACCAR, which is one of the largest manufacturers of medium- and heavy-duty trucks in the world, was drawn to […]
- Klaus Schwab's "Magic Money Tree" Prediction Is Coming True
If you knew where the tree that grew money from its branches settled, wouldn’t you want to shake it? Of course you would. You’d in fact, want to shake it as often as you could.
- The Next Decade Will Likely Foil Most Financial Plans: Lance Roberts
Bear markets, while painful, "reset the table" for strong gains in the future. Trying to avoid them assures the next decade will foil most financial plans
- 5 States Lowering Taxes in 2021
To modify an old journalism adage, “When a state raises taxes, that’s expected. But when a state lowers taxes, that’s news!” And, believe it or not, there are some states doing just that in 2021. Yes, across the United States taxes are still going up in lots of places. According to the Tax Foundation, 26 [...]
- DOJ Watchdog Probing Whether Officials Tried To Interfere With 2020 Election Results
DOJ Watchdog Probing Whether Officials Tried To Interfere With 2020 Election Results The Justice Department's inspector general, Michael Horowitz - a Democrat donor whose wife helped run campaigns for Democrats before joining CNN's Washington bureau - is investigating whether DOJ officials "engaged in an improper attempt" to overturn President Biden's victory in the 2020 election, […]
- Record Large 2-Year Treasury Auction Prices At Record Low Yield
Record Large 2-Year Treasury Auction Prices At Record Low Yield On a day when all the attention has been on the berserk moves in stocks, we were at least (mercifully) spared more fireworks out of the bond market today, when the Treasury sold a record $60 billion in 2Y notes ... ... at a record low yield of 0.125%. The stop was 1.2bps below December 0.137% high yield, and was […]
- Lagarde Says ‘No Doubt’ ECB Will Preserve Financing Conditions
The European Central Bank will be in the market “for an extended period of time” to ensure the economy has ample access to affordable funding to cope with the pandemic and its aftermath, President Christine Lagarde said.“The ECB will make sure that financing conditions are preserved at a favorable level,” she said at a Davos Agenda panel...
- Gold Moves Lower As the Dollar Strengthens Ahead of the Fed Meeting This Week
Gold futures move lower on Monday, giving up earlier gains as government bond yields pulled back and the U.S. dollar strengthened, ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting on monetary policy later this week.
- Is This The Reason Behind's Today's Surreal Market Action
Is This The Reason Behind's Today's Surreal Market Action Between the insane rollercoaster action in the most shorted names, which exploded out of the gate only to get hammered the moment the broader market suddenly plunged 60 points in just a few minutes (one wonders which dealer(s) was so short gamma in the most shorted names, they had no choice but to hammer the entire market to […]
- Fed Set to Look Beyond Possible Post-Pandemic Inflation Shock
Inflation numbers this year could cause numerous headaches - for families fretting about food or gas bills, or politicians wondering if Fed policy risked a return to 1970s-style price surges.
- Fed Will Likely Stress Commitment to Low Rates amid Pandemic
The Federal Reserve this week will likely underscore its commitment to its low-interest rate policies, even as the economy recovers further from the devastation of the viral pandemic. Chair Jerome Powell is sure to strike a dovish tone at a news conference after the Fed's latest policy meeting ends Wednesday.
- Bubble Talk: Is the Good All Priced In?
Here are some interesting Tweets about stimulus, money, vaccines, and stock market valuations.
- Gamestop Goes Red After More Than Doubling Just Two Hours Earlier
Gamestop Goes Red After More Than Doubling Just Two Hours Earlier Update (1220pm ET): It was only "natural" that in a market as broken as deranged as this one, that Gamestop - which less than to hours today was up more than 100%, hitting an all time high just over $159 - is now red for the day, having dropped as low as $60/share. There is nothing one can say here, besides sit back […]
- Biden Reverses Trump's Transgender Military Ban
Biden Reverses Trump's Transgender Military Ban President Biden on Monday repealed former President Trump's ban on transgender individuals serving in the US military - signing an executive order that "sets the policy that all Americans who are qualified to serve in the Armed Forces of the United States should be able to serve," according to a fact sheet circulated by new Defense […]
- Stocks Are Doing Something They Haven't Done Since The Dot Com Bubble
Stocks Are Doing Something They Haven't Done Since The Dot Com Bubble With 66 S&P 500 companies, representing 22% of S&P 500 earnings, having already reported Q4 earnings, there was some good, some not so good, and some downright bizarre news this earnings season. First, the good news: as Bank of America's Savita Subramanian reports, S&P EPS rose 2% last week to $38.70 […]
- Will Venezuela Go To War Over Oil?
Will Venezuela Go To War Over Oil? By Viktor Katona of Oilprice.com January 2021 is still far from over yet the pages of Oilprice already boast 6 articles about Guyana being the hottest drilling spot in the world. This is hardly surprising, considering the hot streak that ExxonMobil had over the past 5 years, with new companies coming in and stepping up the drilling game. The […]
- How the Fed Fails
The Fed has a binary choice: preserve America's global hegemony or further enrich the billionaires. You can't have both.
- Inflation Is Spreading Broadly into the Economy
“Not only have the last two months seen supply shortages develop at a pace not previously seen in the survey’s history, but prices have also risen due to the imbalance of supply and demand.”
- California Gov Lifts COVID Stay-At-Home Order; Dr. Fauci Worries Jabs Won't Stop Mutant Strains: Live Updates
California Gov Lifts COVID Stay-At-Home Order; Dr. Fauci Worries Jabs Won't Stop Mutant Strains: Live Updates Summary: California Gov is lifting stay at home orders Dr. Fauci criticizes US COVID approach, worries vaccines wont' stop mutations US cases, deaths, hospitalizations decline Biden signs COVID travel bans BoJo approves border crackdown South Africa approves AZ vaccine […]
- Markets Are Breaking Left And Right As Stocks Tumble
Markets Are Breaking Left And Right As Stocks Tumble Whether it is due to the absolute insanity taking place among the most shorted names, or the broader market suddenly tumbling (perhaps as the PPT forgot to keep an eye on the S&P transfixed by the action in GME), Downdetector and Bloomberg report that a slew of trading platforms are reporting problems on Monday, and while some […]
- Cuomo’s Tax Ultimatum: New York’s Governor says bail him out or he’ll punish New Yorkers: WSJ
Viewers of Andrew Cuomo’s Emmy-award winning Covid-19 briefings may have noticed how the New York Governor has become increasingly excitable. In this week’s budget show, he pointed an economic gun at New York and threatened to shoot if Washington doesn’t fork over $15 billion.
- Forecast 2021: The Stock Market: Mauldin Economics
Today we are going to focus on my stock market expectations. As I promised last week, this is a “Generational Call.” For reasons we will go into below, I think we are at a pivot point for stocks, with some clear exceptions I will outline.
- Supreme Court Dismisses Suits Over Trump Finances
Supreme Court Dismisses Suits Over Trump Finances The US Supreme Court on Monday ordered the dismissal of a pair of lawsuits accusing former President Trump of illegally profiting from his presidency, after several foreign and state government officials patronized his properties - including the Trump International Hotel in Washington, located a few blocks from the White House. The […]
- Hedge Fund CIO: "It's An Orgy"
Hedge Fund CIO: "It's An Orgy" By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management “The big boys are no longer bullish,” bellowed Biggie Too in baritone. “The big boys are now bubble bullish,” continued the chief investment strategist for one of Wall Street’s Too-Big-To-Fail affairs. “They ask Biggie, why can’t the S&P trade 5,500?” said Too, easing into third […]
- Job Losses from Virus 4 Times As Bad As ’09 Financial Crisis
“This has been the most severe crisis for the world of work since The Great Depression of the 1930s. Its impact is far greater than that of the global financial crisis of 2009,” said ILO Director-General Guy Ryder. The fallout was almost equally split between reduced work hours and “unprecedented” job losses...
- The Dollar's Crash Is Only Just Beginning: Bloomberg
After an initial spike higher, the dollar has been falling steadily since the Covid-19 pandemic took hold in the U.S. last March. It is down about 10% to 12% relative to America’s major trading partners, dropping to its weakest levels since early 2018 as measured by several of the broad dollar indexes. There is more to come.
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders Announces Run For Governor Of Arkansas
Sarah Huckabee Sanders Announces Run For Governor Of Arkansas Since she left the West Wing, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, it has been assumed, would be running for office in her home state, perhaps as a senator, or maybe even the governorship, an office once held by her father, Mike Huckabee, and former president Bill Clinton. On Monday, Sanders made it official by releasing a lengthy […]
- Bitcoin Is Braced For A Huge $4 Billion Price Earthquake This Week
Now, with excitement building ahead of a hotly-anticipated virtual "bitcoin corporate strategy" summit in the first week of February, a record near-$4 billion worth of bitcoin options are set to expire this Friday, January 29.
- China’s Xi Warns Davos World Economic Forum Against ‘New Cold War’
Chinese President Xi Jinping warned global leaders at an all-virtual Davos forum Monday against starting a "new Cold War", and urged global unity in the face of the coronavirus pandemic.
- Daytrading Army Unleashes Furious Cascade Of Short Squeeze Meltups
Daytrading Army Unleashes Furious Cascade Of Short Squeeze Meltups In another insane day for small-cap stocks, which has seen the relentless forced short squeeze in GME continue, more than doubling the stock in the premarket before settling up some 40% higher... ... with the squeeze now moving to the second most shorted stock (as per our Friday preview) namely FIZZ... ... which […]
- Antifa Trashes Tacoma After Viral Video Of Cop Driving Through Crowd
Antifa Trashes Tacoma After Viral Video Of Cop Driving Through Crowd Antifa anarchists in Tacoma, Washington set fires and vandalized buildings on Sunday after a video of a police officer plowing through a crowd of illegal street racers went viral over the weekend. Videos of the mayhem were all over Twitter Sunday night, as hundreds of people took to the streets near the incident - […]
- Dominion Sues Rudy Giuliani Over Election Claims, Seeks $1.3 Billion In Damages
Dominion Sues Rudy Giuliani Over Election Claims, Seeks $1.3 Billion In Damages Dominion Voting Systems filed a defamation lawsuit on Monday against Trump attorney and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who they say carried out "a viral disinformation campaign about Dominion" comprised of "demonstrably false" allegations, according to the New York Times. The 107-page […]
- Moderna Vaccine Not Effective Against "Mutant" South African COVID Strain, But Works With UK Variant
Moderna Vaccine Not Effective Against "Mutant" South African COVID Strain, But Works With UK Variant Moderna's latest trial data includes some good news...and some bad news. The good news is that the biotech company's original COVID jab is effective against two mutations of SARS-CoV-2 which were first isolated in the UK and South Africa, respectively. The bad news is that, at […]
- Key Events This Busy Week: Earnings Deluge, Biden Stimulus, Fed And Forum
Key Events This Busy Week: Earnings Deluge, Biden Stimulus, Fed And Forum It's shaping up as a very eventful week again, with the Fed’s latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday expected to be a highlight. Indeed Wednesday is a blockbuster day with Apple, Tesla and Facebook reporting to "add to the fun" as Deutsche's Jim Reid puts it. 122 S&P 500 companies report in total […]
- Xi Warns Biden & Globe Against 'New Cold War' In Davos Opener As Pundits Tout "Great Reset"
Xi Warns Biden & Globe Against 'New Cold War' In Davos Opener As Pundits Tout "Great Reset" Speaking virtually on the first day of Davos' World Economic Forum on Monday, Chinese President Xi Jinping gave his first major public address since Joe Biden entered the White House, tailoring his message toward calming tensions among global rivals and urging a return to "mutual […]
- Biden Plagiarizes Trump With "Made In America" Executive Order
Biden Plagiarizes Trump With "Made In America" Executive Order As we reported last week, every day of President Biden's 10-day sprint out the gate is supposed to have a "theme". Thursday's was fighting the coronavirus pandemic. Friday's was economic/racial inequality. Now, as Nancy Pelosi and the rest of Biden's Congressional allies continue with their push to (retroactively) […]
- Pandemic-Era Central Banking Is Creating Bubbles Everywhere
A common thread runs through these scenes from the plague year 2020: Cheap money, gushing in from the world’s major central banks, inflated assets and reshaped how we save, invest, and spend. And that’s not the end of it.
- Bridgewater’s Dalio Sees U.S. Divided, in ‘Terrible Financial State’
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio wrote on Twitter on Sunday that the United States is still in a "terrible financial state" and remains "terribly divided"...
- China Overtakes U.S. as World’s Leading Destination for Foreign Direct Investment: WSJ
New investments by overseas businesses into the U.S., which for decades held the No. 1 spot, fell 49% in 2020, according to U.N. figures.
- World’s Economic Recovery Delayed by Slow Vaccine Rollouts
While global growth is still on course to rebound quickly from the recession of last year at some point, it may take longer to ignite and not be as healthy as previously forecast. The World Bank already this month trimmed its prediction to 4% in 2021 and the International Monetary Fund will this week update its own outlook. Double-dip recessions are now...
- Rabo: Today Kicks Off "The Great Reset" World Economic Forum
Rabo: Today Kicks Off "The Great Reset" World Economic Forum By Michael Every of Rabobank Today kicks off the annual World Economic Forum, which this time round is online and so can’t charge anyone $43 for a hotdog. Expect various iterations along the theme of “Builders’ Bums Better” from the talking heads as the ‘Great Reset’ slash ‘Great Reflation’ is dangled […]
- U.S. Carrier Group Enters South China Sea amid Taiwan Tensions
A U.S. aircraft carrier group led by the USS Theodore Roosevelt has entered the South China Sea to promote "freedom of the seas", the U.S. military said on Sunday, at a time when tensions between China and Taiwan have raised concern in Washington.
- COVID-19’s Financial Toll Mounts As Homeowners Keep Postponing Mortgage Payments: WSJ
Some 2.7 million homeowners are still pausing their monthly mortgage bills, and more might need help in the coming months.
- An ‘Aggressive’ Fight over Containers Is Causing Shipping Costs to Rocket by 300%
Industry watchers said desperate companies wait weeks for containers and pay premium rates to get them, causing shipping costs to skyrocket.
- Stocks Will Fall at Least 30% in a Drawn-Out Bear Market, Investor David Tice Warns
Former Prudent Bear Fund manager David Tice is cautious due to Washington policies, an overvalued market and Covid-19 vaccine concerns.
- Biden Pushes Elusive ‘Buy American’ Goal to Order the Government to Buy More U.S. Goods
President Joe Biden will take steps to harness the U.S. purchasing power to increase domestic manufacturing and create markets for new technologies.
- Chinese & Indian Troops In New Himalayan Border Brawl, Injuries Reported
Chinese & Indian Troops In New Himalayan Border Brawl, Injuries Reported Chinese and Indian troops are reported to have once again engaged in a fierce clash along their shared high altitude Himalayan border, resulting in injuries, according to international reports emerging overnight. Word of the clash which reportedly took place in north Sikkim on Wednesday is only now being […]
- Mega-Rich Have Already Recovered from Pandemic Losses, but It Could Take the Poor a Decade: Oxfam
The 1,000 richest people on the planet recouped their losses caused by the coronavirus pandemic within nine months, according to estimates from charity Oxfam.
- COVID Live Updates: CNBC, Merck Ends Its Vaccine Development
The U.S. is recording at least 170,000 new Covid-19 cases and at least 3,080 virus-related deaths each day, based on a seven-day average of JHU data.
- Nasdaq Futures Surge On Wave Of Upgrades Ahead Of Crazy Earnings Week; EMini Flat
Nasdaq Futures Surge On Wave Of Upgrades Ahead Of Crazy Earnings Week; EMini Flat Stocks fluctuated in early Monday trading, with US equity futures and global stocks rising back to all time highs before fading some gains, as optimism over the $1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus plan fizzled modestly following a WaPo report that a bipartisan group was seeking to cut back on the proposed […]
- Merck First US Pharma Giant To Abandon COVID Vaccine Efforts
Merck First US Pharma Giant To Abandon COVID Vaccine Efforts New Jersey-based Merck, one of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies, has just abandoned its two experimental COVID vaccine projects after early data showed they generated little, if any, immune response in patients. Merck's shares took a hit on the news, tumbling nearly 2%, as the company - which has a long […]
- Chicago Teachers Vote To 'Strike' Against In-Person Instruction Over COVID-19 Fears
Chicago Teachers Vote To 'Strike' Against In-Person Instruction Over COVID-19 Fears The Chicago Teachers Union announced on Sunday that its members voted to defy an order to return to in-person instruction on Monday, citing concerns over COVID-19. Officials with Chicago Public Schools (CPS) have made clear that refusing to return when ordered would be tantamount to an illegal […]
- Historic Mania in SPACs, IPOs. Huge Fees for Wall Street Banks. Mega Paydays for Insiders. Disdain for Valuations. Blind Faith that “This Time It’s Different”
Another sign the zoo has gone nuts. “If you don’t have your own SPAC, you’re nobody.”
- Ten Months after Stepping Down as Fed Chair, Janet Yellen Became Part of the “Leadership” Team for Forums Tied to the Chinese Communist Party
Ten Months after Stepping Down as Fed Chair, Janet Yellen Became Part of the “Leadership” Team for Forums Tied to the Chinese Communist Party By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: January 24, 2021 ~ Haven’t we learned anything about properly vetting people for the highest offices in the U.S. government? Former Fed Chair and Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen has failed to report the […]
- Eurostar Near Collapse, Asks for Bailout, Becomes Hot Potato
Traffic down 95%. To run out of money by April.
- No Talk In The Dollar Shadows
The company isn’t bankrupt, it just doesn’t have the right currency in its reach to repay debts coming due. YPF is Argentina’s (former) gold mine, in this case the black gold of energy exploitation. State-owned, the business has obviously close ties to the ruling powers-that-be and a privileged place to go along with them. Its [...]
- Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 42; Part 2: The Other Side of TIPS
42.2 Real Yields Near Record Lows say Economy's AwfulReal yields recently hit RECORD lows. Yes, inflation is rising but is that due to the real economy expanding? Real yields say, "No!". Real yields say, 'The real economy is AWFUL!' So what is driving inflation expectations higher? Fuel. Oil prices are up - but the economy [...]
- Inflation Is Spreading Broadly into the Economy. Amid Surging Costs, Companies Raise Prices, and Customers Pay them, Despite Weak Economy, 10 Million Missing Jobs
“Not only have the last two months seen supply shortages develop at a pace not previously seen in the survey’s history, but prices have also risen due to the imbalance of supply and demand.”
- Gundlach's DoubleLine Capital: Round Table Segment 2, Financial Markets Outlook - Part 1
Round Table Segment 2, Financial Markets Outlook - Part 2 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bB08jU_TqLQ&t=1s
- Gold Falls Over 1%, Pinched by Firm Dollar but on Course for Weekly Gain
Gold prices fell as much as 1.8% on Friday as a broader market sell-off weighed on the metal along with a firm dollar, while hopes for further stimulus from the U.S. kept bullion on track for its first weekly gain in three.
- Investing Legend Turns Apocalyptic: Bursting Of This "Great, Epic Bubble"
Will Be "Most Important Investing Event Of Your Lives"
- Banks Cash In As Wall Street Blows Out Main Street
Banks cashed in on the white-hot IPO market, record debt issuance, and sky-high trading volume — all of which played out as economic peril softened the consumer side of their businesses.
- Biden Executive Order Aims to Speed Up Payments for 8 Million People
Millions have been shut out of receiving $1,200 or $600 checks because their information is not on file. Biden wants the Treasury Department to fix that.
- No, You Don’t Have to Worry About Inflation—Not Yet: MW
If you want to know what’s going to happen to inflation in the months or even years ahead, don’t listen to the pundits. The first is the interest rate on regular U.S. Treasury bonds. The second is the interest rate on inflation-adjusted U.S. Treasury bonds, known as “TIPS.”
- “Spend As Much As You Can and Then Spend a Little Bit More”
Are you ready for this week’s absurdity? Here’s our Friday roll-up of the most ridiculous stories from around the world that are threats to your liberty, risks to your prosperity… and on occasion…
- There Is No Way the Fed Can Ever Take Its Foot off the Pedal Again
- How Real Estate Investing Protects Against Inflation
Central banks unleashed $20 trillion in monetary and fiscal stimulus across the world in 2020 alone.And with more likely coming very soon… inflation concerns are mounting.The rules of investing are changing. And most folks with traditional portfolios are going to be caught completely unaware by this, warns real estate expert, Victor Menasce.Our friend Adam Taggart at PeakProsperity.com sat down […]
- The Office Market in San Francisco Is Even Worse Than New York’s
Rent and occupancy will likely drop 22% in San Francisco in 2021, the largest decline in the U.S., as technology companies embrace remote work, according to a report by Green Street.
- The Fed Trillion's of Dollars Balance Sheet 2020–2021 In Just One Year
The Fed's balance sheet rose last week to a new high of $7.4 trillion, from $4.1 trillion a year ago.
- What Accounts for the Sharp Rise in the Public Debt Ratio in OECD Countries?: Natixis
What accounts for the sharp rise in the public debt ratio in OECD countries?
- WEF: What Is a ‘Vaccine Passport’ and Will You Need One the Next Time You Travel?
A “vaccine passport” or “e-vaccination certification of compliance for border crossing regulations” could be required to enable seamless border-crossing.
- Janet Yellen: Running on MMT, Rotating in Credit
"The world has changed," Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen told senators this week. As a politician it’s easy to embrace MMT,” Cielinski said. “You’re going to see in the next few years many economies test the limits of this.”
- Dollar Inches Up After Three-Day Losing Streak; Risk Currencies Fall
The dollar edged slightly higher on Friday after three straight days of losses, and riskier currencies fell, as bleak economic data gave global equity markets reason to pause after another week of record highs.
- ALL INflation as Nobody Expects Deflation
The global bond and stock markets could have another three years of the bubble ballooning before we get a repeat of the Great Financial Crisis, this time on steroids. We’re expecting the debt bubble to deflate well before that...
- Strong Euro Shows Limits of ECB’s Power in Tackling Deflation: FT
The relationship between currency strength and deflation can become mutually reinforcing, as a strong currency chips away at import prices, muffling inflation. Mr Brooks likens the ECB’s predicament to that of the Bank of Japan in the wake of the financial crisis, when a disinflationary outlook boosted the yen, in turn further fueling fears of deflation.
- Japan’s Consumer Prices Fall at Decade-Fast Pace, Add to Deflation Fears
Japan's core consumer prices slumped in December at the fastest annual pace in a decade, a sign of intensifying deflationary pressures that sharpen the case for the central bank to come up with better ways to combat the deepening impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Time to Worry About Stock Market Leverage Again: Another WTF Sign the Zoo Has Gone Nuts
In a world where valuations are irrelevant.
- The Illusion Of Soaring Savings Amid Rising Economic Uncertainty: Lance Roberts
The illusion of savings has distorted the reality of the economic uncertainty on the bottom 80% of Americans as shown in a recent Simplywise survey.
- The Harbinger: NorthmanTrader
Another caveat: Market valuations have again reached never before seen levels of asset price disconnect from the underlying size of the economy: 192.9%
- Inherent Trouble With Bubbles
While bubbles are extreme events that can radically reorder investment outcomes, there are good reasons to believe this time around will be even more disruptive than usual.
- Trading Volume Is Up from 2020’s Breakneck Pace As Retail Investors Jump In
It's not just equity prices that are hitting new highs in 2021. Trading volumes for stocks and options are at records as well.
- Competitive Currency Debasement 101 Class is in Session
Janet Yellen is Jo Biden's Treasury Secretary nominee. She claims to support "market forces" as the driver for the US dollar. What does that really mean in a practical sense?
- Janet Yellen’s Nomination As First Female Treasury Secretary Clears Key Senate Hurdle
Janet Yellen's history-making move to head the Treasury Department took a key step forward Friday morning after she cleared an important Senate vote.
- States Will Soon Start Giving Out $25 Billion in Rental Assistance
States will soon start giving out billions in rental assistance. Here's what you need to know if you're struggling.
- People in Five States Say Get Me Outta Here
It's easy to guess the states people are leaving. Can you guess the top states where people are headed?
- 2020 Existing Home Sales Highest Since 2006 In "Unhealthy Market"
Despite the usual seasonal slowdown expected, Existing Home Sales rose modestly in December (+0.7% MoM vs -1.9% MoM exp), bucking the trend of downturn into year-end...
- Soaring Inflation & Supply-Chain Disruptions Spark 'Surge' In US PMIs
So employment is weaker, inflation is soaring, and the headline prints are bouyed by a record surge in supplier delivery times (caused by lockdown-driven supply-chain disruptions... not exactly a positive)... It's all an illusion!
- U.S. Will ‘Need More’ COVID Relief Beyond Biden’s $1.9 Trillionl: Former Citigroup Vice Chairman
Democratic New York City mayoral candidate and former Citigroup vice chairman Ray McGuire applauded the Biden administration’s stimulus proposal but emphasized that the scale of the COVID-19 crisis will require additional federal government support beyond the nearly $2 trillion promised.
- McConnell, Heavily Funded by Wall Street, Is Blocking Seating of Democrats as Senate Committee Chairs
McConnell, Heavily Funded by Wall Street, Is Blocking Seating of Democrats as Senate Committee Chairs By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: January 22, 2021 ~ Nine days ago we cautiously reported that Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat from Ohio who holds a critical view of Wall Street’s serial bent toward fraudulent activities, was set to take the Chairmanship of the Senate Banking Committee. This […]
- Global Shares Slid from Record Highs, and US Equity Futures Stumbled on Friday
"After the post-election wave of optimism from the U.S., markets have been left facing the reality of vaccine delivery and new lockdown measures, and the perspective of a double-dip in Europe."
- Gold Slips As Dollar Firms but Still Set for First Weekly Gain in Three
Gold prices fell more than 1% on Friday as U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar held firm, although expectations of a big U.S. fiscal stimulus kept bullion on course for its first weekly gain in three.
- Bitcoin Extends Slide, Heads for Worst Week Since March 2020
Bitcoin wavered on Friday and was heading toward its sharpest weekly drop since September, as worries over regulation and its frothy rally drove a pullback from recent record highs.
- Investment-Grade Bonds Stumble on Rising Yields: WSJ
Investors who hold bonds from highly rated companies lost about 0.90% on average this year through Jan. 20 and rising U.S. Treasury yields are stoking worries that worse has yet to come.
- Joe Biden’s Business Allies Discuss Ways to Pay for Infrastructure Plan, Including a Carbon Tax
President Joe Biden’s allies in the business community have been meeting to craft a set of proposals, including a potential carbon tax, to help pay for an expected $2 trillion infrastructure plan.
- Johnson Signals Third U.K. Lockdown Could Last Into Summer
The U.K.’s third coronavirus lockdown looks set to endure as the government warned it’s too early to contemplate easing restrictions. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Home Secretary Priti Patel did not repeat previous assurances that the U.K...
- Euro Zone Business Activity Shrinks Again As New COVID Strains Lead to More Lockdowns
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde acknowledged on Thursday that the pandemic still posed “serious risks” to the euro zone economy.
- Biden to Sign Executive Orders for the U.S. Hunger Crises & Federal Workers’ Rights
Biden will ask the U.S. Department of Agriculture to consider allowing states to expand access to enhanced Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits as the country confronts a hunger crisis unseen in decades.
- Biden to Push U.S. Congress for Money to Fight Pandemic Globally
The United States will back a global plan to combat COVID-19 and get vaccines to poorer countries as part of a national strategy unveiled by President Joe Biden on Thursday, which includes pushing Congress for more funding for international efforts.
- Biden Is Already Facing Pressure to Scale Back His $1.9 Trillion COVID Relief Plan
Expressed doubts on Wednesday over the need for another bill, especially one with such a price tag, less than one month after Congress passed the $900 billion measure just before the Christmas break.
- COVID Live Updates: CNBC, U.S. Hospitalizations Fall to Pre-Christmas Levels
Fewer than 120,000 people are currently hospitalized with Covid-19 across the U.S., the lowest level since Dec. 27 and in line with pre-Christmas data, according to The Atlantic’s COVID Tracking Project.
- Time to Worry About Stock Market Leverage Again: Another WTF Sign the Zoo Has Gone Nuts
In a world where valuations are irrelevant.
- The Smallest Bit of Empathy For The Swollen Herd
Why isn’t the inflation monster right upon us? Well, for one, central banks only pretend to do money. But setting that aside, it’s worth asking how even if they did do money, could inflation result given the current conditions? Hard no.It’s a combination of enormous macro slack joining destructive forces with the underside of the [...]
- American Restaurants: the Catastrophe of the Second Wave, City by City
Running a restaurant is tough even during the Good Times. But the strain put on restaurants now was beyond imagination not long ago.
- Gold Prices Mark Modest Retreat from a Nearly Two-Week High
“The presidency of Joe Biden started with expectations for a new stimulus and with a new rally for the bullion price,” wrote Carlo Alberto De Casa, chief analyst at ActivTrades.
- The Silver Roadmap
My target price over the next few years is for silver to reach at least $300. How I reach that number is a topic for a future article. But before you think I'm crazy, I can assure you that it's an estimate relating to the gold price, and based on how gold and silver have performed in previous bull markets.
- Hopes Fade for Turnaround in Asia’s Worst-Performing Currency of 2020
Bets on the Indian rupee’s rebound this year are already facing headwinds. The Reserve Bank of India signaled recently it won’t relent on dollar purchases that pushed the currency to the bottom of Asia’s currency rankings in 2020.
- More than 220,000 businesses may disappear due to COVID-19: CFIB
“The small business economy is on life support right now,” said CFIB's vice president Laura Jones.
- Price Discovery "Has Simply Vanished" Klarman Blasts "800lb Gorilla" Fed For Breaking Market
In his latest letter to investors, The Financial Times reports that the billionaire manager blasts the world's central banks (focusing mostly on The Fed) for flooding the financial system with money since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, arguing that the central bank’s moves have made it difficult to gauge the health of the US economy.
- Crescat Macro Deck Presentation: January 2021
National Debt has grown over 3.5x nominal GDP since the break of the gold standard.
- Dollar Retreats for Third Day on U.S. Data, Stimulus Hopes
The dollar fell for a third straight session on Thursday, with investors seeking out higher-yielding currencies, as a slew of better-than-expected U.S. data and continued optimism about a massive stimulus package spurred hopes of a recovery in the world's largest economy.
- Why Cuomo’s Latest Tax Hike Proposal Would Accelerate New York’s Decline
The timeless economic reality of incentives calls into question Cuomo’s proposed tax hike on high earners. It also ought to make us reconsider whether we should be punishing wealth-creation through taxing income at all.
- Biden’s Inflation Danger
What to watch: Even though Fed chair Jerome Powell and other top officials have said they welcome inflation, Bianco warns they are not in charge.
- A Repeat Of The 2000 Dot.com Highs In Play?
As you can see, this ratio peaked out in 2000, bottomed in 2002, and has been in an up-trend ever since. That up-trend has been formed with higher lows, creating a trend line that has yet to be broken.
- U.S. Options Setup May Signal Risks for Stocks, Tallbacken Says
A lack of demand for bearish options on the U.S. stock market signals potentially troubling investor complacency amid a record-breaking equity rally, according to Tallbacken Capital Advisors LLC.Total open interest in put options on the S&P 500 index is around a four-year low...
- New All-Time Low Junk Bond Yield, Is the Fed Worried?
Bloomberg writer Lisa Abramowicz notes "A new all-time low for U.S. junk bond yields, of 4.13%".
- Central Bank Machinations with No Exit
This is not your grandmother’s “yield curve control.” There is only one thing that could force this ECB absurdity to end: a big bout of inflation.
- From Stimulus to Bitcoin to Taxes: A Primer on a Janet Yellen-Led Treasury
If confirmed, Janet Yellen’s immediate task will be selling Congress on the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package. But the former Fed chair will also have her hands full on a number of other issues.
- Almost 3 Million People Fell off the Unemployment Benefits Cliff
Delays in issuing additional Covid relief led millions to lose unemployment benefits after Christmas, according to Labor Department data issued Thursday.
- Hedge Funds’ Bets on Fannie and Freddie Cause Pain: WSJ
Continued uncertainty over the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has inflicted pain on hedge funds, which have been wagering for years that the mortgage-finance giants would be put on a path to returning to private hands.
- The Dangerously Diminishing Returns on Monetary and Fiscal Stimulus
Allow me to translate the risible claims of Jay Powell and Janet Yellen that their stimulus policies haven't boosted wealth inequality to the moon: "Let them eat cake."
- The Crisis Facing Biden Can Create a Vicious Circle: El-Erian
When Joe Biden took office 12 years ago, he joined the administration to deal with a major economic heart attack in the form of a financial crisis. Today, the new president is leading a country facing multiple self-reinforcement crises rather than a single one.
- Wall Street Is in Its Riskiest Mindset in 20 Years: BofA Survey
About 20% of respondents in Bank of America’s latest global fund manager survey out Wednesday said they were taking higher than normal risk. Not only does that continue the upward march in risk appetite started...
- Since 2008 the Eurozone Has Had a Mounting Problem of Lowflation Now Sliding into Deflation
- Economist Slams ECB Chief Lagarde’s Bitcoin Remarks as Dangerous for Cryptocurrency Regulation
The economist suggested that “Central banks should look at cryptocurrencies as a response to what they are doing,” pointing out that their actions are “absolutely incredible in terms of money supply growth and in terms of the impact on financial assets.”
- What Economists and Workers Say About Biden’s Bid for a $15 Minimum Wage and End to Tip Credits: MW
Workers could benefit from higher wages, but many could lose their jobs as a result of a higher minimum wage and tipped credit elimination.
- Fed Gone Wild: This Is a War of the Financial Worlds Warns Ex-Goldman Sachs MD
We are living in a financial war of the worlds, this according to best-selling author and former Goldman Sachs Managing Director Nomi Prins. In this interview with our Daniela Cambone, Prins explains that the Federal Reserve has been overstepping its boundaries since 2008.
- Inflation Rippling Through Markets Is Just What Fed Wants to See
The Fed is far more worried about the risk of long-term scars -- which could develop from a slow recovery -- than about the risk of overheating the economy...
- Inflation or Deflation Ahead?
Will the U.S. economy experience inflation or deflation in the years ahead? That is the same key question economists were grappling with after the Lehman bankruptcy in 2009, when the U.S.
- Highlights from Janet Yellen’s Confirmation Hearing for Treasury Secretary
Highlights from Janet Yellen’s Confirmation Hearing for Treasury Secretary By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: January 21, 2021 ~ The mood among Democrats in Washington was captured at the Senate Finance Committee’s confirmation hearing on Tuesday for former Fed Chair Janet Yellen to become the new Treasury Secretary. Senator Ron Wyden, Democrat of Oregon and the Ranking Member of the Committee […]
- The Stock Market Frenzy Feels like 1999 Dot-Com Bubble, Global Investor Barry Sternlicht Warns
Billionaire global investor Barry Sternlicht said Thursday he’s concerned about the long-term viability of current conditions in the stock market, warning that some aspects feel reminiscent of the dot-com bubble back in the 1990s.
- When the Fed Tapers, the Market Will Have a Tantrum
At some point, when the U.S. economy looks strong enough, the Federal Reserve will have to scale back its efforts to stimulate growth by buying large quantities of government securities.
- ECB Governing Council Press Conference January 21, 2021
ECB President Christine Lagarde will explain the Governing Council's monetary policy decisions and answer questions from journalists at the Governing Council press conference to be held on 21 January 2021 at 14:30 CET in Frankfurt am Main.
- Keynesians going all in
Mainstream economists are celebrating Joe Biden’s election as US President. For Keynesians, the outlook is for a reaffirmation of economic management by the state, and of reflationary monetary policies to restore economic growth, following the damage caused by covid lockdowns.This article points out the fallacies in the Keynesian argument. It shows how key economic statistics have been […]
- Yellen’s Call to ‘Act Big’ Reflects Long Re-Think on Big Government Debt
At U.S. Treasury Secretary-designate Janet Yellen's confirmation hearing Tuesday she nodded to the need for the federal debt to be put on a "sustainable" path, at least eventually.
- Bank of Japan Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged amid Gloomy Outlook
Speaking at a press briefing after the central bank left all of its main policy settings unchanged, Kuroda spent much of his time counting nothing out of the review into the mechanics of the bank’s stimulus program. The one point he insists will not change is the BOJ’s basic approach to stimulus.“
- Eviction Bans, Surging Apartment Vacancy Rates Trip up CMBS Backed by 43 Apartment Buildings
“Physical occupancy” rate (tenants living in the apartment) v. “economic occupancy” rate (tenants actually paying rent).
- Future Stimulus Math
Sticking with Europe, central bankers want and expect higher inflation because that would confirm an economy strong enough – and monetarily sufficed – to sustain success. It’s the sustainability which has been lacking; the global economy since the first global (euro)dollar shortage never able to do more than lurch between downturns and the absence of [...]
- The ‘Cs’ Both Stand For ‘Clown’; YCC ‘Lite’ Hits Europe (allegedly)
The ECB wants everyone to know that it is in control, and therefore has everything under control. Through an almost certainly carefully placed leak, European central bank officials have let it be known current monetary policy is practicing a kind of yield curve control. Not just the usual QE in terms of bond buying, but [...]
- Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 42; Part 1: Doubts Keep Blooming About This QE Business
42.1 WSJ Columnist asks Fed: 'What the...?' Wall Street Journal columnist Andy Kessler recently spoke with Jeff Snider about central banks and monetary policy. He ended a recent column with, "The least the Fed can do is get out of the way. End QE now". [Emil's Summary] A recent Hidden Forces podcast with Demetri Kofinas [...]
- Central Bank Machinations with No Exit: ECB Leaks New Thingy, It’s Doing Yield Spread Control
This is not your grandmother’s “yield curve control.” There is only one thing that could force this ECB absurdity to end: a big bout of inflation.
- When They Introduced An Even Longer Gov’t Bond
If you tally up the amount of local government debt and add it to the total owed by Japan’s central government, at the close of fiscal year 1991 it wasn’t too bad. The Japanese had always been fiscally responsible especially when compared to any of that nation’s big economy peers. In those early days of [...]
- No Sharp Turns From China’s Potential
Most people can be forgiven for suffering the misimpression. Some of it is intentional, as reflation – and those selling it – absolutely require a healthy Chinese contribution to reach their strong global rebound. As we’ve documented over the last decade, it almost doesn’t matter what numbers China’s economy actually puts forward, that system is [...]
- Ask Bob About Social Security and Taxes
- To Put it Succinctly about Services: Everything Drops, incl. Jobs, but Prices & Wages Rise
The service sector, including finance & insurance, in the New York Fed’s district, reports rising prices and wages, despite further deterioration in business. Weirdest economy ever.
- San Francisco Techsodus & Unwind of Office Hogging Sink Office Market. Sublease Explodes, Leasing Freezes up, Rents Drop
From fake “office shortage” to historic glut in no time.
- When the Market Defies All Logic, it’s Time to Take a Deep Breath: My Observations as Real Estate Broker
The new Real Estate Bubble has arrived.
- The destructive force and failure of QE
This article concludes that quantitative easing as a means of stimulating economies and financing government deficits will fail. The underlying assumption is that the transmission of additional money to non-banks in order to inflate financial assets, and to banks to cover government finances, will become too great in 2021 for it to succeed without undermining fiat currencies and financial […]
- Don’t dismiss gold and silver…
There is worrying evidence that 2021 will see the end of fiat currencies, led by the US dollar. US dollar money supply has accelerated at an extraordinary rate, a process that will continue.Signals from the markets that a monetary collapse is increasingly likely include a weakening dollar on the foreign exchanges, bitcoin’s price reflecting an growing disparity between the rate of its issue and […]
- Economic and monetary outlook for 2021
The most important event in the new year is likely to be the Fed losing control of its iron grip on markets. The dollar’s declining trend is already well established against other currencies and commodities, leading to this outcome.Events in 2021 will be the consequence of a developing hyperinflation of the dollar. Foreign holders of dollars and dollar assets — currently totalling $27.7 […]
- The psychology of money
The world stands on the threshold of monetary hyperinflation with the US dollar leading the way. The final months of fiat money are coming into view.What will replace them — bitcoin or gold?This article argues that the final solution is bound to be with central banks and government treasury departments retaining their control as issuers of money by the only means at their disposal: deploying […]
- The next dollar problem has just arrived
Abstract It is not for no reason that cryptos are roaring, and precious metals are playing catch-up. In the last month there have been developments that point to a new phase of accelerating monetary inflation for the dollar, and fiat money is only just beginning to be exchanged for these inflation hedges at an increasing pace.Hyper-inflation of the dollar is now becoming obvious to a growing […]
- Prospects for the UK and the pound
This article assesses the likelihood of the pound following the dollar into monetary hyperinflation. Between March and September, the US Government financed twice as much of its spending by bond sales — mostly through inflationary QE — compared with tax revenues. And there is much more monetary inflation to come.A hyperinflating dollar is now the international backdrop for all currencies, […]
- Inflation roadmap
It is beginning to be obvious that global economic woes extend beyond covid lockdowns and that monetary inflation for the dollar, as the common foundation for other fiat currencies whose issuers face similar problems, will continue to accelerate. Fiat currencies have only survived this long due to increased financialisation of the dollar and the US economy. Since the 1980s Wall Street has […]
- The Golden Road Remains Constant
I One must always be careful to distinguish between a truism, a claim or narrative which is so deeply embedded into the fabric of cultural understanding that it is taken to be an indisputable historical fact, and truth, a continuing, self-evident feature of reality which is available to be observed, reasoned about, and tested in the present. Truisms are the handmaidens of convention which, for […]
- Global Inflation watch
This article posits that fiat currencies are on the path to hyperinflation and looks at the evidence in the prices of financial assets and commodities. So far, gold has notably underperformed, which indicates that the early signals of hyperinflation are confined to the cryptocurrencies, whose participants broadly understand fiat debasement, to equities reflecting the desire not to maintain cash […]